Sunday, July 26, 2015

Storm Systems Merging Overnight - Extremely Dangerous Situation On Monday

All signs are pointing to a very dangerous situation on Monday across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Heavy rains, flash flooding, large amounts of precipitation are expected from Swift Current to Brandon starting early in the morning from nocturnal thunderstorms that may become strong to severe late tonight. Strong tornadic supercells are expected along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan/Manitoba borders early in the afternoon. Systems from Alberta will be moving quickly eastward while Manitoban storms will drop south and collect in a back-building formation in North Dakota. By early afternoon, it is expected both systems will come together over south eastern Saskatchewan with strong tornadic supercells moving north across the border from North Dakota.

Please monitor Environment Canada Warnings closely. This may become a very dangerous situation. Forecast models may change locations drastically overnight depending on how things line up. Have a safety plan ready but remember, this is only a forecast. Updates to the risk area map will be posted as required and please remember to keep reports to a workable minimum with accuracy of location and size of hail using coins or measuring device in photos. Rapid rotation reports are always best served with a short video when in a safe location.

Here is the forecast map for this evening and overnight with tomorrow's expected outlook "Day 2":

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Updated Risk Map - 2:30pm - Severe Weather Outbreak In Progress

Here is the updated risk map as of 2:30pm:

Just after noon time in Calgary and flurry of funnel cloud reports came in. As of right now, the main system has exited city of Calgary and is still growing and moving east. No confirmed tornado touch downs but many photos suggested it very close. Large hail and downpours were also reported.

Here is a zoomed in view of Calgary radar as of 1:50pm - Two dangerous areas, both seem to be rotating on radar. Northern circle is much wider/slower, while the southern circle is the funnel producers with much tighter/faster rotation and the main area to watch. South east corner of a east bound tornadic supercell is usually where it will produce tubes.

Twitter #abstorm highlights from earlier this afternoon:

Tons more can be seen via the #abstorm feed on the right side of this page.

Also, the latest updates will be posted on our Facebook page.
Please like, share, comment and post your footage when safe to do so.

Storms are moving east and expected to continue all afternoon and late into the evening.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Today's Outlook Map [Moderate Risk] - Plus: Yesterday's Summary Of Events

Here is today's severe weather outlook map:

Storms should begin to fire up early this afternoon and last late into the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gust will be the main feature of today's storms.

Yesterday afternoon, storms started extremely strong with two main cells (Lethbridge and Edson) both going purple on radar from the beginning and producing reports of hail the size of golf balls or slightly larger. After initiation, these storms morphed into a linear MCS (mesoscale convective system) producing intense lightning and incredible shelf structure, losing most severe qualities before hitting the city of Edmonton.

REMINDER: When reporting hail to #abstorm #skstorm please use a measuring tape, ruler, coins or golf ball, baseball, softball, etc.. Accuracy in measurement is very important in determining potential damage and risk to future regions. Photos of holding hail in your hands is not acceptable as people have different sized hands. Another common mistake is reporting marble size hail. Marbles also come in various sizes. If it is very small hail, please report as pea size.

***The best way to report is taking a photo with a measuring tape held beside the hail stones***

Here are some tweets of the action in Alberta last night:

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Nice Looking Waterspout In Manitoba Today.

Incorrectly being reported as a tornado, this is a beautiful waterspout. See Weather Glossary below.

A waterspout was photographed today over Interlakes in southern Manitoba. At no point was it over land so this is a confirmed waterspout.

Environment Canada's Weather Glossary:
"A waterspout is a rotating column of vapour and water which extends from thundercloud to the water's surface. A waterspout looks like a tornado but is much smaller and weaker. The diameter of a waterspout ranges from seven to 20 metres and its winds from 40 to 80 kilometres per hour which is strong enough to flip a boat. A waterspout may last up to 10 minutes. Waterspouts, for the most part, form over some of the major lakes of southern Canada during periods of cool, unsettled weather, usually from mid-summer to mid-fall."

Thursday, July 16, 2015

July 16, 2015 - Severe Thunderstorm Hits Regina [Four Videos]

A very busy day around the province of Saskatchewan started with juicy forecasts and lots of anticipation.

Just after noon as the hot sunshine peaked, southern gulf stream appeared and the cold front began to threaten, storms started to fire off, all across central Saskatchewan. With temperatures of only +8C in Cypress Hills and +15C in Kindersley, the heat wave finally met its match, knocking down weeks long 30 degree days. From northern Saskatchewan which collected large piles of small hail, supercells quickly filtered south. Warman was first with nearly 1 inch or toonie size hail. Then, another new set of cells formed further south with Davidson reporting gold ball size hail. Between 2 and 3pm, the entire province filled out with clusters of supercells. Two were seen east of Regina as captured in our timelapse video. Then just as things seemed to clear out, the weather radio blared out an alert and a sudden storm cell popped up right over the city of Regina.  Luckily no major damages here but more storms are forecast again tomorrow, further east.

Wascana Lake Storm Timelapse (15 minutes in 15 seconds)

Today's Outlook Map - Dangerous Weather Ahead!

Current conditions are showing a lot of potential with a strengthening southern gulf stream, cold front coming in from the west and lots of rain in the north. Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre mentions a possibility of tornadic supercells south west of Saskatoon later today. Otherwise, a straight line damaging wind event with supercells associated with the cold front will cross the province of Saskatchewan very quickly and land in southern Manitoba over night. Large hail and heavy rains are expected further north. Please head all warnings and take precautions. Loose objects should be secured, now and candles gathered/phones charged. This is a serious situation! Storms may not begin until late in the day but when they do, they are expected to cause damages with power outages likely in highly populated regions of Saskatchewan.

Here is the latest outlook map:

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Today's Outlook

Prairie Storm Prediction Centre has removed the tornado wording from its 2pm forecast update. As well, the RAP forecast model has suggested the tornado threat has passed for today. The NAM is usually a little bolder and over done as a forecast model and keeps a slight chance of tornadoes open. Both, agree that supercells will be active over much of southern Manitoba today creeping a bit into south eastern Saskatchewan. Central Alberta will see active thunderstorms as well. Mainly heavy rain, large hail and strong to damaging winds.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

This Week's Outlook/NEW Government Issued Twitter Alerts

Environment Canada announced today that they have officially created Twitter accounts for each weather region in Canada. You can see the list at the link provided below as well as the official news release.

Follow and turn on mobile notifications here:

Twitter Accounts by Province/Territory

Regina currently has 104 followers
Saskatoon 60
La Ronge 4
Moose Jaw 42
Calgary 178
Edmonton 152
Toronto 199
Montreal (E) 91
Montreal (F) 170
Winnipeg 45
Vancouver 55
Lillooet 3
Halifax 49

 Let's get these number up! Get informed.

Here is today's severe weather outlook map:

Storms are expected to become more organized and strengthen beginning later today. Stronger storms on Wednesday through Friday with a possible moderate risk for southern Manitoba.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Central Saskatchewan Storms

Storms have been building all morning around the Regina area and just after 11am the lightning detector began to burst with numbers. Strikes per minute climbed from 60 to 90 to 120 to 220 in the span of about 15 minutes. Here is a screen grab from NWR Weather Lightning Detection as of 11:22am:

These thunderstorms have extreme heights of 50k foot tops which gives them huge power and potential for very large hail and heavy downpours to go along with intense lightning. Here are the echo tops as of noon:

Today's Severe Weather Forecast Map:

Friday, July 03, 2015

Massive Supercell Exploding Right Now Over Meadow Lake!

Many other cells now popping up further south towards Saskatoon and into south central Alberta. Here is a look at the current Echo Tops radar as of 2:10pm:

Updated risk area map:

Closely monitor Environment Canada warnings if in the risk area and take cover if a storm approaches. These storms will be damaging and dangerous. Stay safe!

Thursday, July 02, 2015

Big Storms On Friday And Saturday

As the forest fire smoke thickens once again over southern Saskatchewan, a major change in the weather patterns is about to occur. Today's northerly smoke filled winds will shift from the south on Friday, bringing heat and moisture to the prairies. Already like a simmering pot of soup, the air will be ripe for supercell thunderstorms to take over the weather picture for the next two days.

On Friday, central and southern areas of Alberta will be the focus of very high CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy), combined with a south east wind and a cold front diving in from the north the mix will be potent and result in some very strong thunderstorms with super cell structure, damaging winds and very large hail.

Here is the preliminary forecast map that may be upgraded or downgraded depending on the situation:

*Forecast models are not in agreement as the NAM is suggesting a major widespread event and the GFS is forecasting a much more subdued storm complex. Again, forest fire smoke could factor in and limit convection but we will have to keep on the safe side and calls em like we sees em...

Here is the map for Saturday, again things may not be as they seem to suggest:

As always, stay safe, be prepared and stay tuned to weather radios and Environment Canada watches, warnings and weather advisories.