Good News October Update

Fires are mostly out thanks to the rain and much more incoming. Especially for the BC coast and Vancouver Island, the long term GFS is suggesting insane amounts of rain and snow for the mountains. The first trace of snow can be expected on the prairies this week but only very briefly if at all anything but a couple melting flakes. Long term beyond the middle of October shows supercell activity has all vanished and snow is yet to arrive in any significant way. Looks like its going to be warm again after the rain this week, Saturday to Tuesday all above normal according to ECCC forecast in Regina. Alberta warmer, Manitoba cooler for the next 7 days.

Severe Level Hail / Maximum Smoke Incoming!

 We had some severe thunderstorms overnight, Jenny Hagen caught a swath of hail in western Saskatchewan, Regina had plugged storm drains in the morning and lightning and thunder Wednesday night. 

Lots of hail dime to toonie near Ponteix #saskatchewan #skstorm this evening around 8 pm @NHP_Reports covering around a 5km swath in some spots pic.twitter.com/GcCAJqljyx

— Jenny Hagan LostInSk (@LostInSk) September 14, 2023

Today most of the convective precipitation will be over southern Manitoba but the big story this morning is the smoke. According to Firesmoke.ca southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will get a taste of maximum wildfire smoke levels on Friday morning. 

Here is an image of the smoke forecast for 10am Friday.

Last Thunderstorm Outlook of 2023 #mbstorm / Wildfire Smoke Continues...

ECCC has said on Twitter X that this will be the last scheduled outlook of 2023, southeast Manitoba could see strong thunderstorms overnight, especially the extreme southeast corner of the province late overnight (graphic is 8z or between 2am and 3am Tuesday, September 5th) 

Looking the GFS for rain in the north, looks like September 12th will be the first hint of significant rain for most of the worse fire areas in northwestern Alberta and NWT. Smoke continues for pretty much everyone on the Canadian Prairies, in fact it might even get worse. Nice smoke rain in Regina today.

September 9th / Solar Storm Today

 In case of power surges or power outages, keep tuned to the @StormRangerBike for updates. Still looking at the 9th of September for supercells to return. As Tornado Season comes to an end, a solar storm has given photographers an opportunity to see what types of aurora are produced this time around. Remember to book mark the Social Media page or just keep it on this page for the embedded timeline of @StormRangerBike which is where minor updates will be posted for now.

Tweets by StormRangerBike

August 30th Timelapse of Incoming Storm Clouds / Clearing out the smoke #skstorm

 

Smoke briefly cleared out a storm cloud view, however strong thunderstorms were hidden behind the smoke shield for the most part as I filmed from Wascana Lake yesterday. Radar indicated storms just west of the city (Pense) but they kept rolling by northbound and wildfire smoke wrapped it up for me. September 9th continues to show potential. It not over yet!

Calgary Skyline Lightning This Morning via Kyle Brittain on X

Wow some incredible lightning strikes, here is one of the amazing photos found on X Twitter:

Who is all awake in Calgary now? #yyc #abstorm pic.twitter.com/PxNeVyCPSe

— Kyle Brittain (@BadWeatherKyle) August 31, 2023

Live Sky View Downtown Regina, Saskatchewan #skstorm Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this evening!

Tweets by StormRangerBike

Moderate Risk #skstorm Supercells on Wednesday

The latest high resolution forecast model is showing a line of strong thunderstorms across southeast Saskatchewan between 5pm and 9pm, moving northeast from there overnight into Manitoba for Thursday's risk. Up to 2 cm hail and flash flooding are the main risks. High winds and tornado risk are very low. Supercell structure might be good. Note: tornado risk increases overnight into Thursday for Manitoba. Several waves possible.

 

Potential 220 km/hr Landfall for Hurricane Idalia

 

Check out the potential maximum wind gust via the NAM Nest for #Hurricane #Idalia from 119 knots at land fall, 80 knots well inland through Tallahassee, Florida. #FLwx
119 knots=220km/hr=137mph
80 knots=148km/hr=92mph
Lots of potential to damage structures at those rates. pic.twitter.com/YRuy4n6zVG

— ⚡️StormRangerBike🤠🚲 (@StormRangerBike) August 29, 2023

Danger Area in northern Florida Wednesday morning

Strong Thunderstorm / Weak Tornado Wednesday

Spotted a tornado in the first run of the NAM Nest 18z which shows a system developing over the city of Regina between 7pm and 9pm with 0.74 inches/1.9cm of rain, potential for a weak tornado and the supercell index climbed well above what the GFS was saying last night. Looks very localized, most of southeast Saskatchewan will get showers and lightning at most. Keep in mind the smoke could tear this whole idea apart, wildfire / forest fire smoke continues to be very bad in the far north. Add a strong full moon cycle as well into the mix and it will get interesting for sure, storm season isn't over.

https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/

 

Today's Song: Bad Moon Rising

Check TimeAndDate.com for moon phases and SpaceWeather.com for Solar Flares

Its Happening!  

Extreme humidity mixing with smoke and drought this morning as of
7am 94% humidity and 10C?! at the airport.
7:40am: 71% downtown and 17C feels way hotter than that. #yqrWeather #skstorm on Windy Wednesday for sure... pic.twitter.com/mYD1czsJKA

— ⚡️StormRangerBike🤠🚲 (@StormRangerBike) August 28, 2023

Long Term GFS Says: Supercell Season continues... #skstorm

 Looking at the potential for supercell thunderstorms in the long term GFS forecast model late into August now, in fact Wednesday to Thursday, August 30th and 31st could be a tiny spot of potential in southeast Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. Further down the charts, September 9th continues to pop up as the next "big one". Keeping an eye on that date as well as incoming CME's from spaceweather.com

HOLD ON #SKSTORM Next Lightning Opportunity?: Midnight Wednesday, Cooler Today.. or read below for instant update

Forecast models are coming in colder this morning as rain has cooled things off significantly. As the sunshine begins to cook things up, it will be a matter of how fast the sunshine can boil up the atmospheric moisture. As of 8am Monday, we are looking at some organized thunderstorms, possible supercells entering the Regina City area by midnight Wednesday night. Extremely strong storms are possible with tornadoes, but for now those will stay south in North Dakota. .. HOLD ON...

Instant Update: The NAM Nest is coming back in hot, extreme storms with tornadoes now possible in southeast Saskatchewan or North Dakota. Watching this system close. I have Thursday off.

 

Kelowna Fires / Hurricane Hillary / Tropical Storm Trudeau / Supercell Wednesday

Hoping for rain to put out dangerous wildfires in BC, especially Kelowna and it looks Hurricane Hillary has arrived to save the day, or maybe the week. By the time the first wave of rain hits Canada, we are calling it Tropical Storm Trudeau for saving the country. As a bonus, Tropical Storm Trudeau is expected to produce some supercell potential on Wednesday evening as the second wave crosses the land with much needed moisture.

 

The Next Big System

Thursday, August 17th, 2023

Today's Thunderstorm Outlook from ECCC, showing a large risk area from the foothills through Edmonton to Lloydminster, Alberta. 

Up to 100km/hr wind gust and 4cm hail are possible. A tornado risk is low along the foothills from over the mountains in BC, later into the evening and overnight in west central Alberta.

Extreme heat is expected to push east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday. Depending on the timing, the short term forecast showing Regina hitting 97F/35C at 2pm while the high resolution mid-term forecast saying Brandon, Manitoba will get the big time heat wave.

 
Either way, there is a big system coming over the mountains which will affect everyone on the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Expect a lot of wind, heat waves and storms to follow through the weekend until Sunday as it exits Manitoba. Good thing is, the rain should help knock down a few fires however with record ocean temperatures this summer, we should keep our A/C's up a few more weeks. Might stay hot with supercell thunderstorms much later this summer. 

Storm Front Timelapse Videos from August 10th, 2023

 Canon Photo Slideshow with video clips

Motorola G Power Timelapse

Sony FDR X3000 Action Camera Timelapse

Storm Day Thursday, August 10th, 2023

ECCC's Thunderstorm Outlook for Today:Storm drains had to be cleared out this morning after heavy rain and thunder overnight in Regina.

Smoke clears out at 4pm in ReginaForest Fires (FireSmoke.ca) 

Lightning starts at noon to 4pmLightning Density Forecast Map 

Risk of a tornado in southeast SaskatchewanCOD Next Generation Weather Lab (Forecast Models)

Wind gust profiles suggest a late system causing problems in southwest Saskatchewan up to 11pm

Extremely low visibility at midnight

Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

 Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

Be READY for #skstorm tomorrow!

Technical discussion:

Two different scenarios featured by today's short and mid term forecast models. The hrrr shows more convection with storms over Regina, the NAM Nest is showing little to no convection for the city. Both models agree that the Estevan region will be in the DANGER ZONE from 4pm to at least 8pm. Regina might see more tornadic storms form later in the evening or overnight (7pm to 9pm and 1am). With experience of watching these patterns fold and unfold, our best guess is to put all of southern Saskatchewan on storm watch with southeastern areas ready to be on high alert in cast heat energy continues to over take the extreme humidity. Lack of ground water to the west will stir up winds, extreme humidity in the east may trigger tornadoes with this system.

Enjoy the weather, pray for rain and stay safe!

New Playlist: Old Music New Videos

Check out our new playlist on YouTube, all the new videos with old music will be showing up here: 

23/7/23 Tornado Risk Today / Maximum Heat Monday

A non-zero tornado risk has been added for both Alberta and southern Saskatchewan today. Extra rain showers overnight and this morning plus clearing out of smoke is increasing the possibility of strong thunderstorms, if anything they will be very discrete (small yet powerful) . More likely is the heat wave on Monday, with up to 35C/95F as a high temperature by 5pm. Perfect time to defrost the refrigerator!

 

Update #3 Its Montana Monday/Mid Term Models

 Monday is coming in hot for Montana. That is a storm that will need several cameras on it. #mtwx This composite radar image (NAM Nest) is for 8pm as it enters North Dakota. Big storms coming across the northern plains this week!

Tuesday, July 18th could produce tornadoes in southeast Saskatchewan. We will know much more as mid term models begin to reveal the radar.

UPDATE #2 Next Big Storm System: July 18th and 19th, 2023

 Checking the GFS forecast model, today's 12z update, the supercell composite continues to show an area of southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, Montana and the Dakotas in the mix for supercell action from July 18th to July 19th for Canadian provinces, and continuing further south into the states July 20th.