Saturday, June 27, 2015

Tornado Warning In Manitoba [Moderate Risk Outlook Map]

Areas in south eastern Manitoba are in the moderate risk zone for severe weather this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado warning has just been issued:

2:23 PM CDT Saturday 27 June 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:
  • R.M. of Dufferin including Carman Roseisle and Homewood
Updated or ended by 3:15 p.m. CDT.

At 2:23 p.m. CDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Doppler radar indicates a potential tornado near Roseisle moving 40km/h southeast.

Friday, June 26, 2015

Severe Thunderstorms With Flash Flooding [Today's Outlook Map]

There are some big storms popping up all over eastern and central Saskatchewan including Manitoba this afternoon. With extreme heat to the west, and high CAPE values, these slow moving, high topped storms will produce a lot of local rain which could result in flash flooding. Storms are expected to persist late into the evening where a chance of tornadoes exists around sundown.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Weak Tornadic Storms Today, Bigger Ones Friday...

Tornado Warnings have been issued in southern Manitoba this afternoon with confirmation of at least one touchdown.

The storms today are are very slow moving, mostly rain event type with some possible spin ups of weak tornadoes. There will be no map today, keeping with the consistent model forecasts of scattered non-severe thunderstorms. If any damage occurs from these cells, it will be a possible tipped lawn chair and a lot of rain. Flash flooding should be the main concern today.

Friday on the other hand, looks to be quite active for stronger type supercell thunderstorms that can cause widespread damage. Here is a look at the difference between the NAM forecast model for 9pm this evening and 9pm Friday evening. This is the forecast "supercell composite":

Wednesday 9pm Supercell Composite

Friday 9pm Supercell Composite

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Storms Moving Into Manitoba Today

After a very active day yesterday, systems are pushing east into Manitoba. Today's storms are not expected to be tornadic or have very organized supercellularities thus, the slight risk is only for gusty winds, small hail, intense lighting and heavy rains. After today, if anything severe, the rest of next week is forecast to have general to marginal thunder showers and nothing very severe until closer to Canada Day. July 1st to 3rd is looking like the next big system at the height of storm season on the Canadian Prairies. Plan accordingly and as always, be prepared and stay safe!

Friday, June 19, 2015

Storm Chasing Action via Mountain Bike!

Regina, Saskatchewan

June 19, 2015

5:50pm to 6:30pm

Began to see nice structure by the stadium construction site. At Dewdey and Lewvan Drive, I decided I had gone far enough as a rain and hail shaft began to appear! Initially, radar had indicated that it was moving slowly south east (15km/hr), making for an easy chase by bike. But suddenly, the line of cells began to wrap around and the south end rapidly flew across the city (after analysis at home, calculated it clocked up to 60km/hr and became tornado warned just 70km east of the city). Rode the storm home in 20 minutes via mountain bike! Some footage shot in action as i strapped the camera to my back and booked it towards safety! Now that's storm chasing! Pea size hail and a brief heavy downpour as I got home. Barely got wet.

Storm Chasing By Mountain Bike Today - Photos - 7pm Tornado Warning

Began to see nice structure by the stadium construction site. At Dewdey and Lewvan Drive, I decided I had gone far enough. Rode the storm home in 20 minutes via mountain bike! Now thats storm chasing! Pea size hail and downpour as I got home. Barely got wet.

[scroll down for warning] 

...and now:
7:00 PM CST Friday 19 June 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:
  • R.M. of Francis including Vibank Sedley and Odessa
  • R.M. of Indian Head including Indian Head and Sintaluta
  • R.M. of Montmartre including Assiniboine Res.
Updated or ended by 7:59 p.m. CST.

At 7:00 p.m. CST, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Weather radar indicates a potential tornado approximately 15 km south-southwest of Indian Head. This storm is travelling to the southeast at approximately 50 km/h. The storm will track southeastwards to the north of Highway 48.

Severe Weather Outlook Today

Strong storms are expected to fire up early today before noon across much of southern Saskatchewan. This includes a low probability of tornadoes, 2% in the Regina area and 5% along the international border. There is some dispute among forecast models with the NAM calling for a more widespread event from the Yellowhead Highway south and into Manitoba while other models are saying storms will be confined to south of the Number One Highway in Saskatchewan. The undisputed biggest risk remains further south into the Dakotas where SPC is calling for an "enhanced" risk with a large area projected for tornadic action.

The main focus here will be in southern Saskatchewan as many areas could be hearing thunder and seeing large dumps of rain. Possible flash flooding locally and small to moderate sized hail. Damaging winds are not expected but can not be ruled out in stronger cells with the odd weak tornado. If anything, stay up to date with current advisories and watches, keep weather radios and cell phones charged, and always be prepared!

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Three Days Of Severe Thunderstorms

There is expected to be some severe weather along southern areas of the Canadian Prairies to end the week, starting this afternoon in southern Alberta. The main feature of these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Much stronger storms will remain south of the international border. Storms will move east Friday and Saturday into south eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Quiet Pattern For Prairies, Hurricane Forming In The Gulf

Long term forecast models are suggesting no significant storm systems for at least the next 2 weeks. Meanwhile tropical storm forecasters are giving an 80% chance the low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will turn into a tropical storm. This quiet pattern is normal on the prairies during September at the height of tropical storm season. So while we wait for storms to come back to the prairies in July, there very well could be the makings of a major hurricane event much further south.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Today's Outlook Map: Manitoba #mbstorm

Strong thunderstorms exit the prairies tonight as this system pushes across Manitoba. A large complex of storms in north central parts of the province will feed a long line towards the south western border and this thin line of storms will have severe cells that track all the way east into the evening. Large hail, damaging winds gusts and heavy rain will be the main features.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Active Day Ahead: #SkStorm #MbStorm [Risk Map]

Areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border are seeing remnants of last nights nocturnals this morning and this system of rain is expected to feed strong thunderstorms further south west into southern Saskatchewan. Strong daytime heating in the south combined with high humidities and a vigorous "Gulf Stream" (Gulf of Mexico southerly winds) along the SK/MAN border will kick off very strong storms in the Yorkton region of south east Saskatchewan. Later this afternoon, storm cells will spread all the way west into the Lethbridge area of southern Alberta with a risk of becoming severe. Heavy rains including a risk of flash flooding, large hail and strong winds are to be expected in severe level cells. If in these areas of risk, remember to check Environment Canada for updated alerts and keep your weather radio close by. Stay safe!

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Supercells in Alberta and Saskatchewan [Updated Risk Map]

Supercell thunderstorms have emerged over parts of south west Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. Earlier, tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings caused a delay in the Women's World Cup soccer match between Canada and New Zealand in Edmonton. That storm has now moved east of the city and the game has resumed. Watches and warnings are now active and several areas of south west Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta. Check Environment Canada for current alerts.

Here is a snap shot of the Echo Tops reaching near 50k feet as of 7:30pm SST:

Updated Severe Weather Outlook Map as of 8pm:

Two Days Of Strong Storms [Current Map With Details]

The PSPC (Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre) is pulling no punches with its forecast this morning, mentioning "long lived severe thunderstorms", "golf ball size hail" and "90km/hr damaging wind gusts." Edmonton to Lloydminster will be the main areas to watch as storms become severe later this afternoon and into the evening. Storms are expected to reach the Saskatchewan border by sundown and weaken but not die off completely. Nocturnal thunderstorms could continue through the night and feed a larger outbreak across much of the northern grain belt and into south east Saskatchewan and western Manitoba on Friday. We will update this story with another forecast map later this afternoon or early evening depending on the timing and strength of this system.

Saturday, June 06, 2015

Video Of Lightning Storm - May 31st [with music and EPIC ending]

Sped up 4x until the EPIC ending with super slow motion 0.25x

Father and Son Storm Chasing Team
"The Storm Marshall's"
Video footage by William Mysko
Editing by Jared Mysko
Musical Credit: Flight Of The Bumblebee - Rimsky-Korsakov

View Of The Storm Friday Evening

Here is the view of the storm base from downtown Regina as it passed to our north.

Today's Outlook Map

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms today in south-eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. These storms are not expected to be too strong with the main features being heavy rain and small hail. General thunderstorm cells are possible in a wide area of the prairies but will not become severe.

Friday, June 05, 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Issued [Updated Risk Map]

Storms continue to move across southern Saskatchewan this evening, some strong enough to have watches and warnings issued. For the most part, these storms will only bring brief downpours, small hail and strong wind gusts. Check your weather radio or Environment Canada's current warnings page for details. As of 6:39pm, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the city of Moose Jaw and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the city of Regina (which set off my new weather radio in the middle of watching the movie Jurassic Park, REALLY LOUD LOL) 

...and as I write this, the latest radar scans show the line of storms coming off Diefenbaker Lake have rapidly dissipated to near extinction.... back to the movie, looks like the storms are all gone...

Today Severe Thunderstorm Risk Map

June 5, 2015

Severe thunderstorms this afternoon including hail heavy rain, lightning and strong wind gusts. Watches have been issued including an advisory for funnel clouds and weak landspout tornadoes.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Saskatchewan Rivals The Driest Places On Earth This Spring!

At first, I knew it was a dry spring and when I read the latest numbers tweeted by Tiffany at Global News Regina, I was not surprised. Only 9.6mm fell in the city of Regina over the month of May.
Then today, I read a tweet from Peter at Global News in Saskatoon. Only 0.4mm fell in the city of Saskatoon during the month of May. I had to ask if this was a mistake and he meant centimeters.

Nope! Here is the provided official climate data from Environment Canada:

Environment Canada Climate Data

After doing some checking of the driest places on Earth, I found the the Sahara Desert gets approximately 7mm of rain during the month of May. Among the listed driest places on Earth, Waidi Halfa, Sudan gets 2.4mm of rain annually while parts of Egypt, Libya, Chile and the Antarctic get even less to none!

The current long term forecast shows no major change to this dry trend in Saskatchewan. In fact, nothing of significance at all for at least 2 more weeks. People need to take this very seriously in Regina where the city is pleading with residents to cut back on water use. Sadly, with so many new and younger residents, they have no idea what a major drought can do here. Its been a long time since the last major drought but both the "Dirty 30s" and droughts in 1988 and 2000-03 (Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan:Drought) had devastating effects on the economy and living conditions, not only here but in a massive ripple down effect since Saskatchewan is still considered the "breadbasket of North America".

Monday, June 01, 2015

Tonight's Severe Weather Outlook Map

June 1st, 2015

Storms will continue moving east overnight along the Manitoba/North Dakota border. Hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rain are the main risks associated with these storms. Another larger system in Montana may touch the extreme southern border of Saskatchewan late tonight. On Tuesday, storms are expected to keep south of the international border with a possible risk of strong tornadoes in the Dakotas. Much needed rain for the city of Regina has once again missed us and water rationing by residents and businesses begins to ramp up as severe drought threatens the area.

Today's Severe Weather Outlook Map

June 1, 2015

Severe thunderstorms can be expected later today in south east Saskatchewan and along the Manitoba border into the evening. Hail, strong wind gust and heavy rain will be the main threats.