Sunday, May 31, 2015

New Forecast Map: Version 2015

Here is our first map of the season with storm season right on track as we enter the month of June. Storms may persist overnight throughout areas of southern and central Saskatchewan, bringing a risk of small hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours. The risk moves east and south for the day tomorrow as this system begins to pick up steam and build toward the Dakotas, Monday and Tuesday.

*This latest version of the Experimental Forecast Map was re-built using the original format from 2012 by CorelDraw and can now be updated using the new "Fire Alpaca" software.
 (its always fun to try out new programs!)

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Drought Continues! North Dakota Possibilities June 2nd?

The first real chance for severe thunderstorms on the northern plains looks to be June 2nd to 3rd however, current GFS (Global Forecast System) model suggests things will stay south of the US border. It shows that central North Dakota 'could' have severe weather including supercells that day with systems moving towards southern Manitoba on the 3rd. Earlier model runs showed storms possible in southern Saskatchewan on June 2nd as well, so things can easily shift. Personally, I have very little confidence our extremely dry pattern will change any time soon. A strong system in North Dakota could possibly feed some much needed moisture for future development later on around the 7th of June. Right now, looking at humidity and dew point levels, any convection is getting quickly sucked up by near drought conditions at the surface. 30% humidity does not equal thunderstorms of any kind in my books. Dry lightning and low precipitation, high based thunder clouds do not excite me. There is a better chance of severe drought and dust storms than anything else this year, maybe a grasshopper infestation?!