23/7/23 Tornado Risk Today / Maximum Heat Monday

A non-zero tornado risk has been added for both Alberta and southern Saskatchewan today. Extra rain showers overnight and this morning plus clearing out of smoke is increasing the possibility of strong thunderstorms, if anything they will be very discrete (small yet powerful) . More likely is the heat wave on Monday, with up to 35C/95F as a high temperature by 5pm. Perfect time to defrost the refrigerator!

 

Update #3 Its Montana Monday/Mid Term Models

 Monday is coming in hot for Montana. That is a storm that will need several cameras on it. #mtwx This composite radar image (NAM Nest) is for 8pm as it enters North Dakota. Big storms coming across the northern plains this week!

Tuesday, July 18th could produce tornadoes in southeast Saskatchewan. We will know much more as mid term models begin to reveal the radar.

UPDATE #2 Next Big Storm System: July 18th and 19th, 2023

 Checking the GFS forecast model, today's 12z update, the supercell composite continues to show an area of southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, Montana and the Dakotas in the mix for supercell action from July 18th to July 19th for Canadian provinces, and continuing further south into the states July 20th.

 

Smoke Enhibiting Thunderstorm Convection/Clearing Up This Evening

Forest fire smoke is expected to clear up overnight. Thunderstorms had a tough time getting started and likely played a part in a huge area getting zero thunder clouds. Extreme southeast Manitoba is the only place getting the rain and thunderstorms so far. 636pm

Comparing Models to Actuals / Major Manitoba Wind Storms TODAY

Here is todays expanded outlook, NAM Nest is showing action in Saskatchewan, hrrr is calling for big time winds in southern Manitoba. Storms may be discrete, fast moving and tightly packed with a huge punch depending on how close you are. A few very tiny spots on the wind gust map are indicating wind gusts up to 73 knots / 135km/hr in the bright yellow to white spots on the blue map in the red circle. It actually looks like it hits Winnipeg and splits on the hrrr but nothing is suggesting that on current radar or the high resolution NAM Nest. Beware of the potential for high winds if driving along the number 1 highway in southern Manitoba. Stop and wait a few minutes for these storms to pass. They will be destructive as hell.

Chance of a tornado in some of these storm cells, low end.

Potential storm north of Regina according to the nest,

Hrrr disputes that and is tossing everything at Winnipeg.

So far radar is mostly clear with watches issued.