Kelowna Fires / Hurricane Hillary / Tropical Storm Trudeau / Supercell Wednesday

Hoping for rain to put out dangerous wildfires in BC, especially Kelowna and it looks Hurricane Hillary has arrived to save the day, or maybe the week. By the time the first wave of rain hits Canada, we are calling it Tropical Storm Trudeau for saving the country. As a bonus, Tropical Storm Trudeau is expected to produce some supercell potential on Wednesday evening as the second wave crosses the land with much needed moisture.

 

The Next Big System

Thursday, August 17th, 2023

Today's Thunderstorm Outlook from ECCC, showing a large risk area from the foothills through Edmonton to Lloydminster, Alberta. 

Up to 100km/hr wind gust and 4cm hail are possible. A tornado risk is low along the foothills from over the mountains in BC, later into the evening and overnight in west central Alberta.

Extreme heat is expected to push east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday. Depending on the timing, the short term forecast showing Regina hitting 97F/35C at 2pm while the high resolution mid-term forecast saying Brandon, Manitoba will get the big time heat wave.

 
Either way, there is a big system coming over the mountains which will affect everyone on the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Expect a lot of wind, heat waves and storms to follow through the weekend until Sunday as it exits Manitoba. Good thing is, the rain should help knock down a few fires however with record ocean temperatures this summer, we should keep our A/C's up a few more weeks. Might stay hot with supercell thunderstorms much later this summer. 

Storm Front Timelapse Videos from August 10th, 2023

 Canon Photo Slideshow with video clips

Motorola G Power Timelapse

Sony FDR X3000 Action Camera Timelapse

Storm Day Thursday, August 10th, 2023

ECCC's Thunderstorm Outlook for Today:Storm drains had to be cleared out this morning after heavy rain and thunder overnight in Regina.

Smoke clears out at 4pm in ReginaForest Fires (FireSmoke.ca) 

Lightning starts at noon to 4pmLightning Density Forecast Map 

Risk of a tornado in southeast SaskatchewanCOD Next Generation Weather Lab (Forecast Models)

Wind gust profiles suggest a late system causing problems in southwest Saskatchewan up to 11pm

Extremely low visibility at midnight

Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

 Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

Be READY for #skstorm tomorrow!

Technical discussion:

Two different scenarios featured by today's short and mid term forecast models. The hrrr shows more convection with storms over Regina, the NAM Nest is showing little to no convection for the city. Both models agree that the Estevan region will be in the DANGER ZONE from 4pm to at least 8pm. Regina might see more tornadic storms form later in the evening or overnight (7pm to 9pm and 1am). With experience of watching these patterns fold and unfold, our best guess is to put all of southern Saskatchewan on storm watch with southeastern areas ready to be on high alert in cast heat energy continues to over take the extreme humidity. Lack of ground water to the west will stir up winds, extreme humidity in the east may trigger tornadoes with this system.

Enjoy the weather, pray for rain and stay safe!