Big Storms On Friday And Saturday

As the forest fire smoke thickens once again over southern Saskatchewan, a major change in the weather patterns is about to occur. Today's northerly smoke filled winds will shift from the south on Friday, bringing heat and moisture to the prairies. Already like a simmering pot of soup, the air will be ripe for supercell thunderstorms to take over the weather picture for the next two days.

On Friday, central and southern areas of Alberta will be the focus of very high CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy), combined with a south east wind and a cold front diving in from the north the mix will be potent and result in some very strong thunderstorms with super cell structure, damaging winds and very large hail.

Here is the preliminary forecast map that may be upgraded or downgraded depending on the situation:

*Forecast models are not in agreement as the NAM is suggesting a major widespread event and the GFS is forecasting a much more subdued storm complex. Again, forest fire smoke could factor in and limit convection but we will have to keep on the safe side and calls em like we sees em...

Here is the map for Saturday, again things may not be as they seem to suggest:

As always, stay safe, be prepared and stay tuned to weather radios and Environment Canada watches, warnings and weather advisories.

Tornado Warning In Manitoba [Moderate Risk Outlook Map]

Areas in south eastern Manitoba are in the moderate risk zone for severe weather this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado warning has just been issued:

2:23 PM CDT Saturday 27 June 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:

• R.M. of Dufferin including Carman Roseisle and Homewood

Updated or ended by 3:15 p.m. CDT.

At 2:23 p.m. CDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Doppler radar indicates a potential tornado near Roseisle moving 40km/h southeast.

Environment Canada's Current Warnings (Manitoba) 

Severe Thunderstorms With Flash Flooding [Today's Outlook Map]

There are some big storms popping up all over eastern and central Saskatchewan including Manitoba this afternoon. With extreme heat to the west, and high CAPE values, these slow moving, high topped storms will produce a lot of local rain which could result in flash flooding. Storms are expected to persist late into the evening where a chance of tornadoes exists around sundown.

Weak Tornadic Storms Today, Bigger Ones Friday...

Tornado Warnings have been issued in southern Manitoba this afternoon with confirmation of at least one touchdown.

@johnsauderCBC the funnel cloud is now a tornado pic.twitter.com/0sWEGmSfRt

— Justin Reid (@reidj29) June 24, 2015

The storms today are are very slow moving, mostly rain event type with some possible spin ups of weak tornadoes. There will be no map today, keeping with the consistent model forecasts of scattered non-severe thunderstorms. If any damage occurs from these cells, it will be a possible tipped lawn chair and a lot of rain. Flash flooding should be the main concern today.

Friday on the other hand, looks to be quite active for stronger type supercell thunderstorms that can cause widespread damage. Here is a look at the difference between the NAM forecast model for 9pm this evening and 9pm Friday evening. This is the forecast "supercell composite":

Wednesday 9pm Supercell Composite

Friday 9pm Supercell Composite

Storms Moving Into Manitoba Today

After a very active day yesterday, systems are pushing east into Manitoba. Today's storms are not expected to be tornadic or have very organized supercellularities thus, the slight risk is only for gusty winds, small hail, intense lighting and heavy rains. After today, if anything severe, the rest of next week is forecast to have general to marginal thunder showers and nothing very severe until closer to Canada Day. July 1st to 3rd is looking like the next big system at the height of storm season on the Canadian Prairies. Plan accordingly and as always, be prepared and stay safe!