Weak Tornadic Storms Today, Bigger Ones Friday...

Tornado Warnings have been issued in southern Manitoba this afternoon with confirmation of at least one touchdown.

@johnsauderCBC the funnel cloud is now a tornado pic.twitter.com/0sWEGmSfRt

— Justin Reid (@reidj29) June 24, 2015

The storms today are are very slow moving, mostly rain event type with some possible spin ups of weak tornadoes. There will be no map today, keeping with the consistent model forecasts of scattered non-severe thunderstorms. If any damage occurs from these cells, it will be a possible tipped lawn chair and a lot of rain. Flash flooding should be the main concern today.

Friday on the other hand, looks to be quite active for stronger type supercell thunderstorms that can cause widespread damage. Here is a look at the difference between the NAM forecast model for 9pm this evening and 9pm Friday evening. This is the forecast "supercell composite":

Wednesday 9pm Supercell Composite

Friday 9pm Supercell Composite

Storms Moving Into Manitoba Today

After a very active day yesterday, systems are pushing east into Manitoba. Today's storms are not expected to be tornadic or have very organized supercellularities thus, the slight risk is only for gusty winds, small hail, intense lighting and heavy rains. After today, if anything severe, the rest of next week is forecast to have general to marginal thunder showers and nothing very severe until closer to Canada Day. July 1st to 3rd is looking like the next big system at the height of storm season on the Canadian Prairies. Plan accordingly and as always, be prepared and stay safe!

Storm Chasing Action via Mountain Bike!

Regina, Saskatchewan

June 19, 2015

5:50pm to 6:30pm



Began to see nice structure by the stadium construction site. At Dewdey and Lewvan Drive, I decided I had gone far enough as a rain and hail shaft began to appear! Initially, radar had indicated that it was moving slowly south east (15km/hr), making for an easy chase by bike. But suddenly, the line of cells began to wrap around and the south end rapidly flew across the city (after analysis at home, calculated it clocked up to 60km/hr and became tornado warned just 70km east of the city). Rode the storm home in 20 minutes via mountain bike! Some footage shot in action as i strapped the camera to my back and booked it towards safety! Now that's storm chasing! Pea size hail and a brief heavy downpour as I got home. Barely got wet.

Storm Chasing By Mountain Bike Today - Photos - 7pm Tornado Warning

Began to see nice structure by the stadium construction site. At Dewdey and Lewvan Drive, I decided I had gone far enough. Rode the storm home in 20 minutes via mountain bike! Now thats storm chasing! Pea size hail and downpour as I got home. Barely got wet.

[scroll down for warning] 

...and now:

7:00 PM CST Friday 19 June 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:

• R.M. of Francis including Vibank Sedley and Odessa
• R.M. of Indian Head including Indian Head and Sintaluta
• R.M. of Montmartre including Assiniboine Res.

Updated or ended by 7:59 p.m. CST.

At 7:00 p.m. CST, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Weather radar indicates a potential tornado approximately 15 km south-southwest of Indian Head. This storm is travelling to the southeast at approximately 50 km/h. The storm will track southeastwards to the north of Highway 48.

Severe Weather Outlook Today

Strong storms are expected to fire up early today before noon across much of southern Saskatchewan. This includes a low probability of tornadoes, 2% in the Regina area and 5% along the international border. There is some dispute among forecast models with the NAM calling for a more widespread event from the Yellowhead Highway south and into Manitoba while other models are saying storms will be confined to south of the Number One Highway in Saskatchewan. The undisputed biggest risk remains further south into the Dakotas where SPC is calling for an "enhanced" risk with a large area projected for tornadic action.

The main focus here will be in southern Saskatchewan as many areas could be hearing thunder and seeing large dumps of rain. Possible flash flooding locally and small to moderate sized hail. Damaging winds are not expected but can not be ruled out in stronger cells with the odd weak tornado. If anything, stay up to date with current advisories and watches, keep weather radios and cell phones charged, and always be prepared!