Quiet Pattern For Prairies, Hurricane Forming In The Gulf

Long term forecast models are suggesting no significant storm systems for at least the next 2 weeks. Meanwhile tropical storm forecasters are giving an 80% chance the low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will turn into a tropical storm. This quiet pattern is normal on the prairies during September at the height of tropical storm season. So while we wait for storms to come back to the prairies in July, there very well could be the makings of a major hurricane event much further south.

The Gulf low is up to an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 2 days. Full details http://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/UmiuF8WZ52

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) June 14, 2015

Today's Outlook Map: Manitoba #mbstorm

Strong thunderstorms exit the prairies tonight as this system pushes across Manitoba. A large complex of storms in north central parts of the province will feed a long line towards the south western border and this thin line of storms will have severe cells that track all the way east into the evening. Large hail, damaging winds gusts and heavy rain will be the main features.

Active Day Ahead: #SkStorm #MbStorm [Risk Map]

Areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border are seeing remnants of last nights nocturnals this morning and this system of rain is expected to feed strong thunderstorms further south west into southern Saskatchewan. Strong daytime heating in the south combined with high humidities and a vigorous "Gulf Stream" (Gulf of Mexico southerly winds) along the SK/MAN border will kick off very strong storms in the Yorkton region of south east Saskatchewan. Later this afternoon, storm cells will spread all the way west into the Lethbridge area of southern Alberta with a risk of becoming severe. Heavy rains including a risk of flash flooding, large hail and strong winds are to be expected in severe level cells. If in these areas of risk, remember to check Environment Canada for updated alerts and keep your weather radio close by. Stay safe!

Supercells in Alberta and Saskatchewan [Updated Risk Map]

Supercell thunderstorms have emerged over parts of south west Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. Earlier, tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings caused a delay in the Women's World Cup soccer match between Canada and New Zealand in Edmonton. That storm has now moved east of the city and the game has resumed. Watches and warnings are now active and several areas of south west Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta. Check Environment Canada for current alerts.

Here is a snap shot of the Echo Tops reaching near 50k feet as of 7:30pm SST:

Updated Severe Weather Outlook Map as of 8pm:

Two Days Of Strong Storms [Current Map With Details]

The PSPC (Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre) is pulling no punches with its forecast this morning, mentioning "long lived severe thunderstorms", "golf ball size hail" and "90km/hr damaging wind gusts." Edmonton to Lloydminster will be the main areas to watch as storms become severe later this afternoon and into the evening. Storms are expected to reach the Saskatchewan border by sundown and weaken but not die off completely. Nocturnal thunderstorms could continue through the night and feed a larger outbreak across much of the northern grain belt and into south east Saskatchewan and western Manitoba on Friday. We will update this story with another forecast map later this afternoon or early evening depending on the timing and strength of this system.