Extreme Weather Event - Large Strong Tornadoes Thursday Evening

Words can not properly describe what has yet to happen so I will simply post some map outlooks and forecast model screen captures to paint the picture of what is to come over the next few days. Keep in mind this extreme weather event really only begins late Wednesday night and continues until at least Sunday for much of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

GFS - EHI Index Valid 6pm Thursday

GFS - Supercell Composite Valid 6pm Thursday

NAM - Significant Tornado Parameter - Valid 6pm Thursday

NAM - Significant Tornado Parameter - Valid 9pm Thursday

All of this is very interesting but lets wait until Environment Canada issues official watches and warnings. When they do, please take extra precautions and stay safe! 

Updates will continue here until the power goes out.

This Week's Outlook

The next two days will be relatively quiet for storms across most of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After the sun goes down on Wednesday night, everything will begin to change. Hot humid air will take over from the fairly cool weather of the past few days. Storms will erupt in north central Alberta, well east of the foothills and quickly take hold in southern Saskatchewan overnight and into Thursday morning. This will set up a string of several days with great potential for widespread supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes. The main risk areas will be the corridor from Lloydminster to North Battleford, through Saskatoon, Regina and Yorkton with the most significant potential in the Estevan/Brandon/Yorkton triangle of south east Saskatchewan/south west Manitoba. Stay tuned for updates as forecast models often shift and the situation can increase or lessen as the days progress.  

Three Day Outlook For The Weekend

Day 1 - Friday

Day 2 - Saturday

Day 3 - Sunday

Rotating Cells in the South West

5:28pm SST

Tornado warned storm followed by a huge hail core north of #claresholm 4pm this afternoon #abstorm pic.twitter.com/COEVvr5qNe
— Richard Gottardo (@RichardGottardo) July 4, 2013

5:10pm SST

@canadogreg @RobDavis_Wx wall cloud? Was funneling I thought. Maple creek sk. #skstorm pic.twitter.com/CyfZkbsuAV
— Derek Bushman (@DerekBushman) July 4, 2013

Latest Risk Map:

Today's Outlook Map - Alberta Storms Return

Southern Alberta is already seeing supercells develop along the foothills once again today and these will slowly move east. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued from Rocky Mountain House to Red Deer and watches continue further south from there. Manitoba may get a brief severe thunderstorm later in the day or evening but contained mainly to the far southeast pushing into Ontario tonight. Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba will be clear of any storms until tomorrow. Storms may become fairly widespread on Friday throughout southern Saskatchewan so we will have to monitor to see where things go overnight tonight.