Three Day Outlook For The Weekend

Day 1 - Friday

Day 2 - Saturday

Day 3 - Sunday

Rotating Cells in the South West

5:28pm SST

Tornado warned storm followed by a huge hail core north of #claresholm 4pm this afternoon #abstorm pic.twitter.com/COEVvr5qNe
— Richard Gottardo (@RichardGottardo) July 4, 2013

5:10pm SST

@canadogreg @RobDavis_Wx wall cloud? Was funneling I thought. Maple creek sk. #skstorm pic.twitter.com/CyfZkbsuAV
— Derek Bushman (@DerekBushman) July 4, 2013

Latest Risk Map:

Today's Outlook Map - Alberta Storms Return

Southern Alberta is already seeing supercells develop along the foothills once again today and these will slowly move east. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued from Rocky Mountain House to Red Deer and watches continue further south from there. Manitoba may get a brief severe thunderstorm later in the day or evening but contained mainly to the far southeast pushing into Ontario tonight. Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba will be clear of any storms until tomorrow. Storms may become fairly widespread on Friday throughout southern Saskatchewan so we will have to monitor to see where things go overnight tonight.

Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Risk Dimished [Map]

After severe thunderstorms battered parts of eastern Saskatchewan including areas of the Quill Lakes and Yorkton regions, supercells have pushed into south west Manitoba and are rapidly dissipating. Models suggest these storms will not go much further overnight. Tomorrow, the risk moves into southern Manitoba and another system will begin in Alberta. Friday looks to be the most active in south central parts of Saskatchewan.

5pm Risk Map Update

Just saw a tweet saying Lanigan has been issued a Severe Thunderstorm warning. Environment Canada's website has been down for the past 2 hours or so. From Intellicast.com some incredible temperature gradients throughout the south central areas of Saskatchewan:

Outlook 77F Elbow 90F
Lanigan 77F Dafoe is 93F

The cap should start to break and super storms will emerge in the next couple hours in these areas.

Today's Risk Map

Edit: Watches have been issued as I was working on the map and writing this post, the risk area seems to also include the south western areas of Saskatchewan according to Environment Canada but I am going to leave our map as is for now. Another full update will be posted here around 3pm.

Here is today's risk map with areas in orange most at risk for large hail and damaging winds, there is also a chance of tornadoes as supercells begin to initiate late this afternoon of early this evening. Watches will likely be issued sometime this afternoon but storms are not expected to fire up until after day time heating reaches it peak. The cold front will then take over a super storms will quickly organize and become severe with little or no warning. Please take safety precautions now and be ready to get to shelter. This system is the same type that hit the Edmonton area yesterday, so expect power outages and widespread tree damage.

The Storms Are Forming (Rare computer generated image grabs)

Here is a rare image of CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) maxed out over northern Alberta this afternoon at 21:00z (3pm SST) reading of over 6000 j/kg (buoyancy). Pink is 6000, white areas inside the pink is off the charts, estimated at 8000 to 12000 j/kg. Current CAPEs can be seen at this link.

Another image grab, from NEXLAB, College of Dupage Meterorology shows the squall line forming over north western Saskatchewan, streaming into Alberta to feed the ongoing supercells in the Edmonton and surrounding areas.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are now active in 4 quadrants of extreme north west Saskatchewan (another rare occurrence, in fact I have never seen that) as well as 8 quadrants of central Alberta, including cities of Edmonton, Red Deer. Image credit Environment Canada.

STAY SAFE!

Today's Severe Weather Outlook Map

Extreme heat and humidity this afternoon will give way to a cold front passing through central Alberta this evening, sparking extreme weather changes. Supercell thunderstorm will quickly form and become very dangerous with hail expected to surpass 1 1/2 inches or 'toonie size'. Winds associated with these storms will create a very large squall line with gusts of 100km/hr or very damaging. Tornadoes can not be ruled out as well as these cells initiate. Between the hours of 7pm and 10pm storms will be the strongest and then dissipate overnight. 

This system enters Saskatchewan on Wednesday and could affect most of the province with central areas seeing the brunt of the storms in the evening. The north eastern areas of Saskatchewan could see the most rain and the south should get the most severe wind gusts as the cold front expands in a line from Swift Current through Saskatoon and all the way up to Flin Flon. The city of Regina and areas in the south east will have to wait until late evening to see what materializes. This is expected to be a significant extreme weather event and updates will be ongoing via this blog, twitter feeds and the group on Facebook.

Please stay aware of the situation, plan accordingly and heed all Environment Canada warnings. File reports to Environment Canada including date, time, location and photo and video evidence with safety in mind first in order to accurately inform the public of the developing situation. See email, phone number and links below:

REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER

storm@ec.gc.ca

1-800-239-0484

Reporting Severe Weather

(Environment Canada Info)

Time To Expand Radar Coverage? Are we missing tornadoes? [Commentary]

Congratulations to Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group now at 395 members! The growth of this group is great testament to the importance and public interest in the weather here on the Canadian prairies. I would like to see what we can do to help expand Environment Canada's radar coverage. Especially in July, tons of potentially tornadic storms go completely missed by forecasters and spotters in the northeastern areas of Saskatchewan, not to mention northern Manitoba as well, due to lack of radar sites in those areas.

Once again, today we have a tornado warning from a photo report along the edge of the current radar range. With no radar in the area, our only line of defence in satellite images and maybe a cage full of deprived gerbils. Are we really going to continue to use these poor gerbils to forecast storms in the north or is there some way to open Steven Harpers squeaky wallet and expand the radar coverage stations?

If you would like to join the discussion, post your storm observations or simply see the footage as it comes in from some great people and very talented photographers and videographers, please feel free to join here:

Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group

Thanks,
Jared Mysko

"This group is for storm chasers , spotters , weather enthusiasts , or anyone that is concerned about the weather in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, or Alberta. Tornado warnings, severe thunderstorms, or just wacky weather. Thanks and enjoy the weather!"

 

Facebook Group Moderated and Created by Ken Kun

Originally Developed by Jared Mysko on this blog and Yahoo! Groups (established 2003)

Mostly Calm And Sunny Today, Slight Risk Of Pulse Storms [Risk Map]

Today is expected to be a fairly calm and sunny day across the prairies with some brief pop up storms that may reach severe levels but nothing major. This pattern continues until the next outbreak beginning around Canada Day July 1st.

Today's Risk Map

Storm System Developing

A very strong storm system is forecast to develop overnight along the southern borders in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening. Storms will not likely move anywhere north of the Trans Canada Highway but will develop from Lethbridge to Cypress Hills this evening and from Estevan to Brandon tomorrow evening. All points in between may see storms occurring but not at maximum intensity due to time of day (late night/morning).

Rainbow, Supermoon, Sunset (12 Photos)

This Evenings Outlook Map

Nice Day In Regina (2 Photos)

A couple photos from a nice day in Regina

Calgary Flooding - Ariel Footage From Global News Helicopter [MUST SEE]

Terrible flooding in southern Alberta today. These waters are now heading towards Medicine Hat tonight and into Lake Diefenbaker in Saskatchewan next. The city of Saskatoon is also in the path of this one in 500 year flood. Nobody has seen a flood like this before in Alberta so it is impossible to predict how bad it will get once it hits the dams in Lake Diefenbaker, the worlds largest man made lake. It is still raining in Calgary so there is really no end in sight. A total catastrophe and what will likely turn out to be the most costly disaster in Canadian history.

Today's Outlook - Manitoba

Here is the map, too tired to comment, must go to my real job lol more updates and footage from yesterday later this afternoon.

SUPER STORM DAY - Updated with new HD Timelapse Clip

Tornado warnings in southern Alberta, dangerous supercells stretching across southern Saskatchewan, wildly rotating wall cloud over the city of Regina... and this day continues.. tons of footage coming in on the feeds on the right hand side of this page. As the sun sets this evening, storms are just getting bigger and badder. Much more later on... stay tuned and stay safe!!!

from earlier today: 

2pm Update: Pulse Storms Over Regina - Tornado Risk Dropping

As earlier predicted, storm cells have emerged over the city of Regina as of 1pm feeding from the nocturnal supercell which has since started to lose strength. These are pulse storms and only have infrequent lightning and brief downpours of rain. Much like yesterday, this system will gain strength over the afternoon and become very dangerous into the evening. The chance of tornadoes is low however the storms will become very widepspread across the southern parts of Saskatchewan. If storms back build as far as Alberta, there is a chance there of a tornado but very minisquelle. Most of the action today will be concentrated from the original cell and become stationary, shooting off back builders and heavy rain producers. This situation is being monitored very closely. Please pay attention to any warnings by Environment Canada and there will be an update here on Canadian Prairie Storms blog by or before 6pm.

Stay Safe!

Very Dangerous Storm System Now Hitting Southern Saskatchewan

A nocturnal supercell has held together through the night in south west Saskatchewan and is sweeping across the province at this time. Take precautions now if you are heading into work by closing open windows and gathering any loose items in your yard that may become projectiles. ETA for City of Regina is about 1pm. These storms will not die off in this environment, they will reorganize and turn very ugly especially along extreme areas of south central Saskatchewan. Early this afternoon this supercell will begin to shoot off tornadic cells to the south west of the feeder cell. BE ADVISED THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM SYSTEM.

PLEASE: STAY SAFE!

Tornado Risk Today: East Central Alberta

Conditions have increased the threat of very severe weather today, especially in east central Alberta where a risk of strong tornadoes exists. Storms will generally be larger, more powerful than yesterday due to the increase in temperatures and moisture. Storm motion will be very slow once again this evening as cells will be near stationary as the system creeps slightly east from the action last night. Tomorrow the shift will be much greater as it moves into parts of Saskatchewan. A full fledged moderate risk could be issued along the Saskatchewan/Montana border tomorrow as conditions gain even more energy. The main cliff hanger will be Wednesday evening as temperatures drop with the passing storms in southern Saskatchewan but then increases dramatically again Friday night in southern Manitoba. In fact, there is no foreseeable end to this pattern so storm season on the Canadian Prairies is now fully under way and will continue full strength until the end of the current cycle beginning of July.

3 Day Outbreak

This evening major storms have begun in southern Alberta and will continue to crawl across the prairies over the next 3 days. Southern Alberta tonight, Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Tuesday and most of southern Saskatchewan will see serious severe weather on Wednesday. Forecast models suggest this could be a significant event on Wednesday especially as temperatures rise and the system moves towards the wet zones of Saskatchewan. Many grid roads and most farm fields are now flooded in areas of central and north central Saskatchewan. The heat in the south west will mix with these conditions and likely fire up some very big storms this week.

Severe Weather Outlook For Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will track north and east this evening and overnight with nocturnal storms lasting until morning where they will begin further east into Manitoba. These are supercell thunderstorms so please take all warnings from Environment Canada very seriously. There is not likely to be major damage caused but localised flooding and large hail, strong but brief tornadoes can not be ruled out. STAY SAFE!

Supercells Tonight In South West Saskatchewan #skstorm

After many excited reports of heavy rain in central Alberta that even resulted in tornado warnings being issued, some very real storms are starting to make their way as forecast into south west Saskatchewan. With echo tops of over 40k feet compared with the 25k foot storms earlier today around Edmonton, there is a very serious risk of damaging winds of up to 100km/hr and hail of golf ball size or 1 inch. Two supercells, one currently over Leader, Saskatchewan and the other much bigger complex of supercells is just south of the US border in Montana about to enter extreme south west areas of Saskatchewan. People need to take immediate safety precautions in the areas warned by Environment Canada and STAY SAFE!

Severe Weather Today In Alberta - 11am Risk Map

Severe weather is expected this afternoon in areas of Alberta and south west Saskatchewan. The largest most powerful storms will be in the southern sector producing damaging winds and large hail. Also of note today, the SPC in the USA has issued a very rare "High Risk" day around the city of Chicago.

Severe Weather Outlook This Week [NEW MAP]

The next three days will be very active with severe thunderstorms starting from southern Alberta into Montana with a much bigger system in the Ohio Valley towards southern Ontario. Already a Moderate Risk has been issued for tomorrow by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma covering areas of the states of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.  A Slight Risk for southern Alberta, south west Saskatchewan and most of the state of Montana will mean serious storms with supercells and damaging tornadoes likely. Things will progress east each day with most activity staying close to the US border... likely very big storms, but nothing like we saw in Oklahoma a few weeks ago during those major historic outbreaks. The threat for danger increases though, especially Thursday in south west Saskatchewan with very hot winds aloft pushing in from Montana. To pin point areas of most danger here on the Canadian Prairies, Wednesday will be mostly between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat towards Cypress Hills, Thursday will be from Kindersley to Maple Creek and over to Assiniboia, Friday things will get going from Yorkton to Brandon in the east but still that is a few days away so conditions may shift either way. The way most storms have developed this spring suggests that south west Saskatchewan and south east Saskatchewan will get the most activity. The city of Regina has missed most every thunderstorm so far and that trend will continue until we get closer to July. So far this season, Saskatchewan has had two confirmed F-0 tornadoes and no damage reported as yet.

Here is the map:

Please watch for public watches and warnings via local media, Environment Canada or The Weather Network, and...

STAY SAFE!

Jared Mysko

Today's Severe Weather Forecast Map

Today's Risk Map - 2pm Update

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for cities of Regina and Saskatoon and areas of south central Saskatchewan. Main threat is damaging wind gusts and large hail. These storms have potential to be very powerful.

Today's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Map

Tonight and into Sunday, areas of southern Saskatchewan will see severe weather in the form of thunderstorms with a possibility of large hail, intense lightning and brief heavy rain.

Spring and Summer Weather Hazards

Awesome 30-yr tornado database map included here with Spring and Summer Weather Hazards and safety information from David Sills - Environment Canada

Click the map for Environment Canada info source

Slight Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms Tonight (New Map)

Minimal at best but there does appear to be a slight risk of severe weather in south west parts of the Canadian Prairies tonight. Severe thunderstorm watches are now active further south in Montana and Idaho and this system is expected to make its way into Canada over night. Wind warnings are up for Cypress Hills areas with expected 100km/hr wind gusts possible tonight and into Tuesday morning. Heavy rains are possible as storms track across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Most of southern Saskatchewan are enjoying high temperatures of 29 to 30 Celsius from Moose Jaw to Regina, Weyburn and Estevan.

If anything, its a good chance to dust off the map for the first time in 2013!

End Of The Flood

Confirmation this evening by Regina city workers monitoring Wascana Creek
the #SaskFlood has peaked at this location http://youtu.be/TUX-pu0Cj3E

Water Outlet Wascana Creek 8 Day Timelapse