Moderate Risk

PSPC (Prairie Storm Prediction Centre) for the 2pm update states, "...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS OVER EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST CENTRAL MB LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SLGT RISK OF SEVRE TSTMS OVER SERN SK/SWRN MB AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL SK INTO EAST CENTRAL AB."  


Our map shows this area with a high risk included for later on in the evening near sunset. A lone supercell came down the number 1 highway early this morning and seems to have parked itself over the city of Regina. Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for all of central east and west Saskatchewan and central Alberta. These should be extended south and east as the day progresses and this cell begins to organize itself. Please pay very close attention to watches and warnings in your area today and this evening. Updates to this blog will be limited to the #skstorm column on the right hand side of this page.

Echo Tops Radar 1:20pm

Echo Tops Radar 1:50pm

Weekend At The Lake [with music, photos and video]

Dramatic Storm Music To Start Your Day

Symphony No. 5: Allegro Con Brio - Beethoven 

Storm Cluster Timelapse (Weekend at the lake)

Photos of some storm clusters over Pratt Lake, Saskatchewan this past weekend:

Revised Outlook Maps For Thursday Storms

As expected, severe thunderstorms have begun in the central Alberta areas around Edmonton and have begun to creep into west central Saskatchewan. Forecast models have done some shifting north for this system. Here is the latest risk map for tonight. Storms will calm down overnight and re-fire into a full blown outbreak in Saskatchewan Thursday, see graphics below:

Another update for Thursday as forecast models are continuing to suggest a very significant severe weather outbreak throughout the province of Saskatchewan. Areas of Manitoba have been dropped for the morning and afternoon storms and may not get much until Friday according to the latest model runs. A risk of a tornado near noon in the La Ronge area of north central Saskatchewan and supercell thunderstorms across most of the south and central areas will increase in strength as they move east. This large complex of storms will spread across the province in the largest of swaths from north to south. Later in the evening around 8pm will see the tornado threat reach maximum danger level in areas around Yorkton.  

Please stay tuned for updates and follow official Environment Canada watches and warning with the utmost respect and STAY SAFE!

Basic Tornado Survival Tips

Please take some time and review the following list in case you happen to live in the path of a deadly tornado:

During a Tornado Watch

1. Gather any loose items from your yard and secure them to prevent flying projectiles.
2. Plan your day accordingly to always have an escape route. Do not go to the movies!
3. Stay off the highways, do not EVER stop under an underpass (wind speeds increase and the death toll is always highest in the underpasses)
4. Make sure you have candles, food and bottled water for at least a day or two.
5. Charge your cell phone or run a land line into your shelter.

During a Tornado Warning

1. Close all windows in your house. (leaving one window open a crack to relieve air pressure changes)
2. Gather every person you can into your safe area (bunker/bomb shelter/basement).
3. If you don't have a basement, take your supplies to the inner most room, be it a bathroom or closet.
4. Cover your head with a pillow or wear a helmet.

These are my own personal suggestions. For more information on how to stay safe, please visit the following links for more detailed ideas and advice from people who have been through it as I have:

Tornado Precautions - Chuck Doswell
Tornado Safety Tips - State Farm Insurance
Tornado Safety - Storm Prediction Center
Tornado Safety Tips - News9 Oklahoma
Tornado Safety - Environment Canada
How To Survive A Tornado - The Old Farmers Almanac
How To Survive A Tornado - WikiHow

Extreme Weather Event - Large Strong Tornadoes Thursday Evening

Words can not properly describe what has yet to happen so I will simply post some map outlooks and forecast model screen captures to paint the picture of what is to come over the next few days. Keep in mind this extreme weather event really only begins late Wednesday night and continues until at least Sunday for much of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

GFS - EHI Index Valid 6pm Thursday

GFS - Supercell Composite Valid 6pm Thursday

NAM - Significant Tornado Parameter - Valid 6pm Thursday

NAM - Significant Tornado Parameter - Valid 9pm Thursday

All of this is very interesting but lets wait until Environment Canada issues official watches and warnings. When they do, please take extra precautions and stay safe! 

Updates will continue here until the power goes out.

This Week's Outlook

The next two days will be relatively quiet for storms across most of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After the sun goes down on Wednesday night, everything will begin to change. Hot humid air will take over from the fairly cool weather of the past few days. Storms will erupt in north central Alberta, well east of the foothills and quickly take hold in southern Saskatchewan overnight and into Thursday morning. This will set up a string of several days with great potential for widespread supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes. The main risk areas will be the corridor from Lloydminster to North Battleford, through Saskatoon, Regina and Yorkton with the most significant potential in the Estevan/Brandon/Yorkton triangle of south east Saskatchewan/south west Manitoba. Stay tuned for updates as forecast models often shift and the situation can increase or lessen as the days progress.  

Three Day Outlook For The Weekend

Day 1 - Friday

Day 2 - Saturday

Day 3 - Sunday

Rotating Cells in the South West

5:28pm SST

Tornado warned storm followed by a huge hail core north of #claresholm 4pm this afternoon #abstorm pic.twitter.com/COEVvr5qNe
— Richard Gottardo (@RichardGottardo) July 4, 2013

5:10pm SST

@canadogreg @RobDavis_Wx wall cloud? Was funneling I thought. Maple creek sk. #skstorm pic.twitter.com/CyfZkbsuAV
— Derek Bushman (@DerekBushman) July 4, 2013

Latest Risk Map:

Today's Outlook Map - Alberta Storms Return

Southern Alberta is already seeing supercells develop along the foothills once again today and these will slowly move east. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued from Rocky Mountain House to Red Deer and watches continue further south from there. Manitoba may get a brief severe thunderstorm later in the day or evening but contained mainly to the far southeast pushing into Ontario tonight. Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba will be clear of any storms until tomorrow. Storms may become fairly widespread on Friday throughout southern Saskatchewan so we will have to monitor to see where things go overnight tonight.

Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Risk Dimished [Map]

After severe thunderstorms battered parts of eastern Saskatchewan including areas of the Quill Lakes and Yorkton regions, supercells have pushed into south west Manitoba and are rapidly dissipating. Models suggest these storms will not go much further overnight. Tomorrow, the risk moves into southern Manitoba and another system will begin in Alberta. Friday looks to be the most active in south central parts of Saskatchewan.

5pm Risk Map Update

Just saw a tweet saying Lanigan has been issued a Severe Thunderstorm warning. Environment Canada's website has been down for the past 2 hours or so. From Intellicast.com some incredible temperature gradients throughout the south central areas of Saskatchewan:

Outlook 77F Elbow 90F
Lanigan 77F Dafoe is 93F

The cap should start to break and super storms will emerge in the next couple hours in these areas.

Today's Risk Map

Edit: Watches have been issued as I was working on the map and writing this post, the risk area seems to also include the south western areas of Saskatchewan according to Environment Canada but I am going to leave our map as is for now. Another full update will be posted here around 3pm.

Here is today's risk map with areas in orange most at risk for large hail and damaging winds, there is also a chance of tornadoes as supercells begin to initiate late this afternoon of early this evening. Watches will likely be issued sometime this afternoon but storms are not expected to fire up until after day time heating reaches it peak. The cold front will then take over a super storms will quickly organize and become severe with little or no warning. Please take safety precautions now and be ready to get to shelter. This system is the same type that hit the Edmonton area yesterday, so expect power outages and widespread tree damage.

The Storms Are Forming (Rare computer generated image grabs)

Here is a rare image of CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) maxed out over northern Alberta this afternoon at 21:00z (3pm SST) reading of over 6000 j/kg (buoyancy). Pink is 6000, white areas inside the pink is off the charts, estimated at 8000 to 12000 j/kg. Current CAPEs can be seen at this link.

Another image grab, from NEXLAB, College of Dupage Meterorology shows the squall line forming over north western Saskatchewan, streaming into Alberta to feed the ongoing supercells in the Edmonton and surrounding areas.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are now active in 4 quadrants of extreme north west Saskatchewan (another rare occurrence, in fact I have never seen that) as well as 8 quadrants of central Alberta, including cities of Edmonton, Red Deer. Image credit Environment Canada.

STAY SAFE!

Today's Severe Weather Outlook Map

Extreme heat and humidity this afternoon will give way to a cold front passing through central Alberta this evening, sparking extreme weather changes. Supercell thunderstorm will quickly form and become very dangerous with hail expected to surpass 1 1/2 inches or 'toonie size'. Winds associated with these storms will create a very large squall line with gusts of 100km/hr or very damaging. Tornadoes can not be ruled out as well as these cells initiate. Between the hours of 7pm and 10pm storms will be the strongest and then dissipate overnight. 

This system enters Saskatchewan on Wednesday and could affect most of the province with central areas seeing the brunt of the storms in the evening. The north eastern areas of Saskatchewan could see the most rain and the south should get the most severe wind gusts as the cold front expands in a line from Swift Current through Saskatoon and all the way up to Flin Flon. The city of Regina and areas in the south east will have to wait until late evening to see what materializes. This is expected to be a significant extreme weather event and updates will be ongoing via this blog, twitter feeds and the group on Facebook.

Please stay aware of the situation, plan accordingly and heed all Environment Canada warnings. File reports to Environment Canada including date, time, location and photo and video evidence with safety in mind first in order to accurately inform the public of the developing situation. See email, phone number and links below:

REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER

storm@ec.gc.ca

1-800-239-0484

Reporting Severe Weather

(Environment Canada Info)

Time To Expand Radar Coverage? Are we missing tornadoes? [Commentary]

Congratulations to Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group now at 395 members! The growth of this group is great testament to the importance and public interest in the weather here on the Canadian prairies. I would like to see what we can do to help expand Environment Canada's radar coverage. Especially in July, tons of potentially tornadic storms go completely missed by forecasters and spotters in the northeastern areas of Saskatchewan, not to mention northern Manitoba as well, due to lack of radar sites in those areas.

Once again, today we have a tornado warning from a photo report along the edge of the current radar range. With no radar in the area, our only line of defence in satellite images and maybe a cage full of deprived gerbils. Are we really going to continue to use these poor gerbils to forecast storms in the north or is there some way to open Steven Harpers squeaky wallet and expand the radar coverage stations?

If you would like to join the discussion, post your storm observations or simply see the footage as it comes in from some great people and very talented photographers and videographers, please feel free to join here:

Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group

Thanks,
Jared Mysko

"This group is for storm chasers , spotters , weather enthusiasts , or anyone that is concerned about the weather in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, or Alberta. Tornado warnings, severe thunderstorms, or just wacky weather. Thanks and enjoy the weather!"

 

Facebook Group Moderated and Created by Ken Kun

Originally Developed by Jared Mysko on this blog and Yahoo! Groups (established 2003)

Mostly Calm And Sunny Today, Slight Risk Of Pulse Storms [Risk Map]

Today is expected to be a fairly calm and sunny day across the prairies with some brief pop up storms that may reach severe levels but nothing major. This pattern continues until the next outbreak beginning around Canada Day July 1st.

Today's Risk Map

Storm System Developing

A very strong storm system is forecast to develop overnight along the southern borders in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening. Storms will not likely move anywhere north of the Trans Canada Highway but will develop from Lethbridge to Cypress Hills this evening and from Estevan to Brandon tomorrow evening. All points in between may see storms occurring but not at maximum intensity due to time of day (late night/morning).

Rainbow, Supermoon, Sunset (12 Photos)

This Evenings Outlook Map

Nice Day In Regina (2 Photos)

A couple photos from a nice day in Regina