Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Risk Dimished [Map]

After severe thunderstorms battered parts of eastern Saskatchewan including areas of the Quill Lakes and Yorkton regions, supercells have pushed into south west Manitoba and are rapidly dissipating. Models suggest these storms will not go much further overnight. Tomorrow, the risk moves into southern Manitoba and another system will begin in Alberta. Friday looks to be the most active in south central parts of Saskatchewan.

5pm Risk Map Update

Just saw a tweet saying Lanigan has been issued a Severe Thunderstorm warning. Environment Canada's website has been down for the past 2 hours or so. From Intellicast.com some incredible temperature gradients throughout the south central areas of Saskatchewan:

Outlook 77F Elbow 90F
Lanigan 77F Dafoe is 93F

The cap should start to break and super storms will emerge in the next couple hours in these areas.

Today's Risk Map

Edit: Watches have been issued as I was working on the map and writing this post, the risk area seems to also include the south western areas of Saskatchewan according to Environment Canada but I am going to leave our map as is for now. Another full update will be posted here around 3pm.

Here is today's risk map with areas in orange most at risk for large hail and damaging winds, there is also a chance of tornadoes as supercells begin to initiate late this afternoon of early this evening. Watches will likely be issued sometime this afternoon but storms are not expected to fire up until after day time heating reaches it peak. The cold front will then take over a super storms will quickly organize and become severe with little or no warning. Please take safety precautions now and be ready to get to shelter. This system is the same type that hit the Edmonton area yesterday, so expect power outages and widespread tree damage.

The Storms Are Forming (Rare computer generated image grabs)

Here is a rare image of CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) maxed out over northern Alberta this afternoon at 21:00z (3pm SST) reading of over 6000 j/kg (buoyancy). Pink is 6000, white areas inside the pink is off the charts, estimated at 8000 to 12000 j/kg. Current CAPEs can be seen at this link.

Another image grab, from NEXLAB, College of Dupage Meterorology shows the squall line forming over north western Saskatchewan, streaming into Alberta to feed the ongoing supercells in the Edmonton and surrounding areas.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are now active in 4 quadrants of extreme north west Saskatchewan (another rare occurrence, in fact I have never seen that) as well as 8 quadrants of central Alberta, including cities of Edmonton, Red Deer. Image credit Environment Canada.

STAY SAFE!

Today's Severe Weather Outlook Map

Extreme heat and humidity this afternoon will give way to a cold front passing through central Alberta this evening, sparking extreme weather changes. Supercell thunderstorm will quickly form and become very dangerous with hail expected to surpass 1 1/2 inches or 'toonie size'. Winds associated with these storms will create a very large squall line with gusts of 100km/hr or very damaging. Tornadoes can not be ruled out as well as these cells initiate. Between the hours of 7pm and 10pm storms will be the strongest and then dissipate overnight. 

This system enters Saskatchewan on Wednesday and could affect most of the province with central areas seeing the brunt of the storms in the evening. The north eastern areas of Saskatchewan could see the most rain and the south should get the most severe wind gusts as the cold front expands in a line from Swift Current through Saskatoon and all the way up to Flin Flon. The city of Regina and areas in the south east will have to wait until late evening to see what materializes. This is expected to be a significant extreme weather event and updates will be ongoing via this blog, twitter feeds and the group on Facebook.

Please stay aware of the situation, plan accordingly and heed all Environment Canada warnings. File reports to Environment Canada including date, time, location and photo and video evidence with safety in mind first in order to accurately inform the public of the developing situation. See email, phone number and links below:

REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER

storm@ec.gc.ca

1-800-239-0484

Reporting Severe Weather

(Environment Canada Info)