Today's Outlook Map - Alberta Storms Return

Southern Alberta is already seeing supercells develop along the foothills once again today and these will slowly move east. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued from Rocky Mountain House to Red Deer and watches continue further south from there. Manitoba may get a brief severe thunderstorm later in the day or evening but contained mainly to the far southeast pushing into Ontario tonight. Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba will be clear of any storms until tomorrow. Storms may become fairly widespread on Friday throughout southern Saskatchewan so we will have to monitor to see where things go overnight tonight.

Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Risk Dimished [Map]

After severe thunderstorms battered parts of eastern Saskatchewan including areas of the Quill Lakes and Yorkton regions, supercells have pushed into south west Manitoba and are rapidly dissipating. Models suggest these storms will not go much further overnight. Tomorrow, the risk moves into southern Manitoba and another system will begin in Alberta. Friday looks to be the most active in south central parts of Saskatchewan.

5pm Risk Map Update

Just saw a tweet saying Lanigan has been issued a Severe Thunderstorm warning. Environment Canada's website has been down for the past 2 hours or so. From Intellicast.com some incredible temperature gradients throughout the south central areas of Saskatchewan:

Outlook 77F Elbow 90F
Lanigan 77F Dafoe is 93F

The cap should start to break and super storms will emerge in the next couple hours in these areas.

Today's Risk Map

Edit: Watches have been issued as I was working on the map and writing this post, the risk area seems to also include the south western areas of Saskatchewan according to Environment Canada but I am going to leave our map as is for now. Another full update will be posted here around 3pm.

Here is today's risk map with areas in orange most at risk for large hail and damaging winds, there is also a chance of tornadoes as supercells begin to initiate late this afternoon of early this evening. Watches will likely be issued sometime this afternoon but storms are not expected to fire up until after day time heating reaches it peak. The cold front will then take over a super storms will quickly organize and become severe with little or no warning. Please take safety precautions now and be ready to get to shelter. This system is the same type that hit the Edmonton area yesterday, so expect power outages and widespread tree damage.

The Storms Are Forming (Rare computer generated image grabs)

Here is a rare image of CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) maxed out over northern Alberta this afternoon at 21:00z (3pm SST) reading of over 6000 j/kg (buoyancy). Pink is 6000, white areas inside the pink is off the charts, estimated at 8000 to 12000 j/kg. Current CAPEs can be seen at this link.

Another image grab, from NEXLAB, College of Dupage Meterorology shows the squall line forming over north western Saskatchewan, streaming into Alberta to feed the ongoing supercells in the Edmonton and surrounding areas.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are now active in 4 quadrants of extreme north west Saskatchewan (another rare occurrence, in fact I have never seen that) as well as 8 quadrants of central Alberta, including cities of Edmonton, Red Deer. Image credit Environment Canada.

STAY SAFE!