Today's Risk Map

Edit: Watches have been issued as I was working on the map and writing this post, the risk area seems to also include the south western areas of Saskatchewan according to Environment Canada but I am going to leave our map as is for now. Another full update will be posted here around 3pm.

Here is today's risk map with areas in orange most at risk for large hail and damaging winds, there is also a chance of tornadoes as supercells begin to initiate late this afternoon of early this evening. Watches will likely be issued sometime this afternoon but storms are not expected to fire up until after day time heating reaches it peak. The cold front will then take over a super storms will quickly organize and become severe with little or no warning. Please take safety precautions now and be ready to get to shelter. This system is the same type that hit the Edmonton area yesterday, so expect power outages and widespread tree damage.

The Storms Are Forming (Rare computer generated image grabs)

Here is a rare image of CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) maxed out over northern Alberta this afternoon at 21:00z (3pm SST) reading of over 6000 j/kg (buoyancy). Pink is 6000, white areas inside the pink is off the charts, estimated at 8000 to 12000 j/kg. Current CAPEs can be seen at this link.

Another image grab, from NEXLAB, College of Dupage Meterorology shows the squall line forming over north western Saskatchewan, streaming into Alberta to feed the ongoing supercells in the Edmonton and surrounding areas.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are now active in 4 quadrants of extreme north west Saskatchewan (another rare occurrence, in fact I have never seen that) as well as 8 quadrants of central Alberta, including cities of Edmonton, Red Deer. Image credit Environment Canada.

STAY SAFE!

Today's Severe Weather Outlook Map

Extreme heat and humidity this afternoon will give way to a cold front passing through central Alberta this evening, sparking extreme weather changes. Supercell thunderstorm will quickly form and become very dangerous with hail expected to surpass 1 1/2 inches or 'toonie size'. Winds associated with these storms will create a very large squall line with gusts of 100km/hr or very damaging. Tornadoes can not be ruled out as well as these cells initiate. Between the hours of 7pm and 10pm storms will be the strongest and then dissipate overnight. 

This system enters Saskatchewan on Wednesday and could affect most of the province with central areas seeing the brunt of the storms in the evening. The north eastern areas of Saskatchewan could see the most rain and the south should get the most severe wind gusts as the cold front expands in a line from Swift Current through Saskatoon and all the way up to Flin Flon. The city of Regina and areas in the south east will have to wait until late evening to see what materializes. This is expected to be a significant extreme weather event and updates will be ongoing via this blog, twitter feeds and the group on Facebook.

Please stay aware of the situation, plan accordingly and heed all Environment Canada warnings. File reports to Environment Canada including date, time, location and photo and video evidence with safety in mind first in order to accurately inform the public of the developing situation. See email, phone number and links below:

REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER

storm@ec.gc.ca

1-800-239-0484

Reporting Severe Weather

(Environment Canada Info)

Time To Expand Radar Coverage? Are we missing tornadoes? [Commentary]

Congratulations to Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group now at 395 members! The growth of this group is great testament to the importance and public interest in the weather here on the Canadian prairies. I would like to see what we can do to help expand Environment Canada's radar coverage. Especially in July, tons of potentially tornadic storms go completely missed by forecasters and spotters in the northeastern areas of Saskatchewan, not to mention northern Manitoba as well, due to lack of radar sites in those areas.

Once again, today we have a tornado warning from a photo report along the edge of the current radar range. With no radar in the area, our only line of defence in satellite images and maybe a cage full of deprived gerbils. Are we really going to continue to use these poor gerbils to forecast storms in the north or is there some way to open Steven Harpers squeaky wallet and expand the radar coverage stations?

If you would like to join the discussion, post your storm observations or simply see the footage as it comes in from some great people and very talented photographers and videographers, please feel free to join here:

Canadian Prairie Storm Chasers Facebook Group

Thanks,
Jared Mysko

"This group is for storm chasers , spotters , weather enthusiasts , or anyone that is concerned about the weather in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, or Alberta. Tornado warnings, severe thunderstorms, or just wacky weather. Thanks and enjoy the weather!"

 

Facebook Group Moderated and Created by Ken Kun

Originally Developed by Jared Mysko on this blog and Yahoo! Groups (established 2003)

Mostly Calm And Sunny Today, Slight Risk Of Pulse Storms [Risk Map]

Today is expected to be a fairly calm and sunny day across the prairies with some brief pop up storms that may reach severe levels but nothing major. This pattern continues until the next outbreak beginning around Canada Day July 1st.