Today's Risk Map/Moderate Risk in South Dakota

Isolated severe thunderstorms my pop up in south eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba today while a Moderate Risk has been issued further south. South Dakota, Minnesota and a small portion of North Dakota is currently under a Moderate Risk situation. Conditions are ideal for the development of strong tornadoes and very severe weather in those areas while it will be mostly quiet on the Canadian Prairies today.

Today's Risk Map - Cold Core Funnels Possible For Southern Manitoba

Conditions today in southern Manitoba are similar, yet slightly weaker as yesterdays tornadofest in west central Saskatchewan. Cold core funnels and weak tornadoes may be spotted in areas of the interlakes region of southern Manitoba. From Dauphin to Brandon, 300mb vorticity is off the charts at maximum strength but CAPEs are low with little heating available for major storms. Very concentrated localised tornadoes could occur but hail may be pea sized and downpours of rain brief if any.

Surprise Tornado Outbreak In Saskatchewan

Tornadoes and cold core funnel clouds were spotted across much of west central Saskatchewan Friday afternoon. From Biggar, Tramping Lake and Unity areas to Perdue and Asquith, all west of Saskatoon, spotters took videos and photos of all sorts of shapes and angles of tornadoes. One barn near Biggar was destroyed according to CTV. A video posted on CBC's website showed an amazing 3 tornadoes at once near Tramping Lake!


Tornado Near Tramping Lake, 2012 from Mark Mallett on Vimeo.


Tons of photos have been posted on the Facebook group "CanadianPrairieStormChasers" from Unity, Perdue and others, as the footage keeps rolling in. Some have said between 5 and 6 tornadoes have been confirmed but that number may rise or fall after an assessment from Environment Canada which could take a few days. Close to 100 photos have been posted at rough count so far but I would guess no less than 10 tornadoes occurred within the same area.

Tornado near Tramping Lake Saskatchewan twitter.com/TimTHR/status/…
— Tim Hammond (@TimTHR) June 15, 2012

PHOTO: Two funnel clouds form near Asquith #Saskatchewan 40km west of #Saskatoon #yxe #skstorm 3:20pm today twitter.com/AndrewSpearin/…
— Andrew Spearin (@AndrewSpearin) June 15, 2012

PHOTO: Two funnel clouds in today's #skstorm near Asquith #saskatchewan #yxe twitter.com/AndrewSpearin/…
— Andrew Spearin (@AndrewSpearin) June 15, 2012

This tornado is on the edge of Biggar, Saskatchewan. twitter.com/TimTHR/status/…
— Tim Hammond (@TimTHR) June 15, 2012

News articles:
Saskatoon Star Phoenix
CBC Saskatchewan

Slight Risk?

PSPC says slight risk for se sk and sw mb today, i doubt it. CAPES way too low for anything. Thursday Friday are a little better for southern Manitoba but nothing to get excited about, there may be a lightning strike or two but no big storms.

Not worth making a map today.

Latest Forecast - Long Term Looks Clear

Looking at the long term severe weather forecast, CAPE values (convective available potential energy) are low to nil until at least next Tuesday where south west Manitoba and south east Saskatchewan may get the next slight risk. So... no major storms are on the horizon for anywhere on the Canadian Prairies until next week. As the forecast changes, you will be updated here asap.