Supercell Sunset and Lightning Strikes!

July 19, 2016

Regina, Saskatchewan



Between 8pm and 10pm I caught this incredible display of Saskatchewan's skies. A tornadic supercell to the north provided incredible sunset shots from near the RCMP Heritage Centre. Later, dry cg lightning strikes as seen from the south side of Wascana Lake.

Continuous Lightning 3am July 19, 2016

Just after the near zero visibility downpour, I caught some clips of continuous lightning flashes over downtown Regina after 3am. It was severe warned for about an hour but only produced the heavy rain for a few minutes, no hail or much wind. More of the same today and tonight!?

Southern Alberta! Be Prepared Tonight... #Supercells #Tornadoes #abstorm

The BIG storms are back today! Great heat energy combined with several days of seeding rains and a strong jet stream will fire off some huge storms in southern Alberta late in the day and run east overnight, maintaining power. Potential for very large hail and long track tornadoes exists but for the most part, it will be hot and sunny all day for most areas. We don't expect storms to "break the cap" until late in the day or maybe early evening but when they do, it will get vicious! Overnight, nocturnals will grow and cruise east into Saskatchewan setting up an even more powerful set up on Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday the strongest of this system will show its teeth over eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. This is a system to take very seriously. Charge you devices and set your weather radio to ALERT. Here is the current risk map:

Regina North Storm Timelapse 3:39 to 4:11pm

Overnight and Saturday Morning Risk Map

Here is an updated risk map for overnight and into Saturday morning. Next update at 7am. Strong thunderstorms overnight will increase in scale and intensity by morning. Large hail, strong winds and risk of a tornado for south east Saskatchewan and south west Manitoba. Saturday evening, storms will become long track supercells with significant tornadoes and up to baseball size hail.

Moderate to High Risk Saturday and Sunday #MBSTORM #SKSTORM

Saturday and Sunday looks like it will be a moderate to high risk for severe weather in south east Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Baseball size hail with long lived supercells, significant tornadoes, dangerous lightning and damaging winds. Begin your tornado precautions NOW if in these areas, Yorkton south through Regina into Montana, east to the Red River Valley and all of south west Manitoba. Make your plans now and stay safe, monitor weather alerts closely and with full attention, charge weather radios, cell phones, and stock candles and food.
A detailed map will be outlined later tonight as models come in line with the forecast.
Here is the Saturday 6pm NAM Supercell Composite:

Sunday's GFS shows the Supercell Composite Index with soundings at 69.1 (translating to a PDS Tornado, "Particularly Dangerous Situation) just south of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba/North Dakota border intersection:

Tornado #5 of 2016 Confirmed

Video of Saskatchewan's 5th confirmed tornado of 2016 near Estevan yesterday July 7.

#abstorm More Small Hail In Large Amounts Today - #mbstorm Landspout Tornadoes

Copious amounts of moisture across the southern prairies today combined with high temperatures will combine to mix in a little of everything, or lot of little things. Yesterday reports out of Okatoks, Alberta showed huge amounts of small hail covering the highways as snow plows had to be called in for what is quite a normal major hail event for the foothills as summer storm season hits its prime time of late June (pictures and tweets below). More of the same is forecast for today with an added bonus of a possibility of landspout tornadoes in southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley. Strong pulse storms will begin early in the day with some becoming near supercellular size in areas south and east of Red Deer Alberta. Southern Saskatchewan could also see some storms reach severe levels with hail and heavy rain as the main factors. Here is a forecast map as drawn up at 7am: This map may be updated as needed later this afternoon. Photos and tweets from yesterday's amazing hail storms in the southern Alberta foothills:

How about that hail yesterday?! #yyc #abstorm pic.twitter.com/9bO7zuUFao

— CJAY 92 (@CJAY92) June 29, 2016

Christmas in June? Snow plow clearing hail on HWY2 South of Calgary, Alberta #abstorm @PrairieChasers pic.twitter.com/ThPYMGNiPC

— Braydon Morisseau (@BraydonMoreSo) June 29, 2016

@JimCantore Snow? Nope, just a typical hail storm south of Calgary, Alberta! #abstorm pic.twitter.com/4TIl6K1JvJ

— Michael O'Connor (@Brown825O) June 29, 2016

NWT - Storms Way Up North Today [Risk Map]

Storms way up north today. North West Territories regions under an active severe thunderstorm watch. "1:14 PM MDT Monday 27 June 2016 Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for: Hay River Region including Enterprise Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the Mackenzie River and southern Great Slave Lake from Fort Simpson to Hay River. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over the region. The thunderstorms will strengthen this afternoon, with hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds in excess of 90 km/h possible. Thunderstorms will weaken this evening." Public Weather Alerts for Canada: http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html Here is today's Risk Map:

"Several areas to watch this afternoon.." [1pm Updated Risk Map]

Several areas to watch this afternoon for the development of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain, flash flooding, large hail and intense lightning are the main concerns today and into the overnight. In the north, slow moving storm cells may trigger flash flooding and large hail throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Further south, mainly in south western Manitoba, a strong cold front will trigger supercells late this afternoon and move east overnight. Extreme amounts of precipitation with large hail and possible microbursts could cause localized damaging wind gusts. Very intense lightning will also be of a concern, especially near game time in Winnipeg as the CFL season kicks off there tonight. Here is the latest detailed risk map for today:

Daytime Clearing - Nighttime Derecho [Saturday's Risk Map]

With clear skies expected across the prairies on Saturday, daytime heating will to lead to severe weather developing overnight and into Sunday. Strong damaging winds and heavy rain with flash flooding are the main concerns. The situation may in fact become a "derecho" type event.
(A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, or pronounced phonetically as " ") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm. Derechos are associated with bands of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms variously known as bow echoes, squall lines, or quasi-linear convective systems.) Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm
Along the international border, storms are expected to be strongest and move east at a minimum of 80km/hr. It will move so fast that the storm system will start up in Montana Saturday night and end up in northern Ontario on Sunday morning. Since these powerful type of systems can cause widespread damage with gusts of between 100 and 120km/hr, areas near or around the main storm system will be affected. Heavy rains with supercell thunderstorms will precede the damaging wind event. Tornadoes and large hail are also possible ahead of the squall line.
Here is the latest graphic from the GFS storm model showing midnight Saturday's Supercell Composite Index:
As you can see in this second snip, the strongest areas of strength move all the way into northern Ontario by noon Sunday, only 12 hours after the first graphic, seen above.

Our preliminary risk map, outlining the area of most concern for Saturday night:

Incredible Shelf and Lightning Photos and Video - June 14, 2016

Timelapse from 64x to 16x all footage shot between 9 and 10pm on June 14, 2016
Incredible Shelf Cloud with lightning over Wascana Lake and the Saskatchewan Legislature in Regina this evening just before 10pm
All footage by +Jared Mysko Storm & Wildlife Photographer Adventurer @jaredmysko

Today's Risk Map

Storms from Montana may drift into south eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and become marginally severe later this evening. Heavy rains in north central Alberta and general thunderstorms in northern Manitoba.

Today's Risk Map - "Extreme Instability"

Something to keep an eye on today... extreme instability along the international border should keep the risk of tornadoes about the Montana/North Dakota/Saskatchewan border intersection. The heavy rains are expected in south western Saskatchewan this morning and burn off with day time heating. Storms will fire up later this afternoon in Montana and remnants could drift into the southern most area of south east Saskatchewan. Risk of storms will be highest after 6pm for Estevan.

Today's Risk Map: #skstorm #mbstorm

Moderate Risk for areas along the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. Chance of a tornado, large hail, damaging winds and intense lightning. Storms are expected to initiate rapidly around 3pm in south east Saskatchewan and strengthen as they move northeast into southern Manitoba. Peak intensity of these storms will be between 3pm and 8pm.

Storms Ramping Up Today, Look Out For Tomorrow!

Widespread severe thunderstorms late this afternoon, strengthening into the evening and then running all night. Hot and humid air today will give rise to strong thunderstorms including supercells with golfball size hail and wind gusts up to 100km/hr. On Thursday morning, the remnants of today's storms will quickly emerge in south east Saskatchewan and move into southern Manitoba with near maximum force. This will be a dangerous situation. Areas from Yorkton to Winnipeg should prepare now for extremely severe weather tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

Moderate Risk Today: Calgary Area [Today's Risk Map]

Moderate Risk today for areas along the dry line between Sundre and High River, Alberta. This carries a risk of an isolated tornado to go along with supercell thunderstorms reaching strengths of 110km/hr wind gusts and hail up to 4cm or an inch and half. Take all Environment Canada warnings and watches seriously today and stay extra weather aware if you are in areas along the foothills of Alberta today.

Busy Week Ahead! Lets Start In Alberta...

High based supercell thunderstorms in west central Alberta today with risk of golf ball size hail and wind gusts up to 100km/hr. #abstorms This system is expected to gain strength as it comes off the foothills and cross the prairies this week. The risk moves south east tomorrow into southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Long term forecast models have shifted Wednesday and Thursday back and forth between Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan for an enhanced risk of extremely severe thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the situation closely but for sure something big is brewing for later in the week.

Updated Risk Map 6pm SST #skstorm

Rapid expansion northwards of severe thunderstorms in Montana at the moment. Updated risk map as of 6pm SST laying out a slight risk for mainly south west Saskatchewan. Latest storm forecast models suggest storms will track north towards the Kindersley/Rosetown region this evening and dissipate in strength.

First Big Storms Saturday In Saskatchewan #skstorm [Risk Map]

Strong to damaging winds will be the main issue over most of southern Saskatchewan on Saturday. Thunderstorms may become severe with intense lightning, strong wind gusts and brief downpours of rain. These storms are expected to emerge late in the afternoon in extreme south west Saskatchewan and slowly track east into the evening. A very marginal tornado risk does exist as well as a chance of hail reaching severe levels very briefly within the strongest cells. Next update, around 2pm.

Remember to follow Environment Canada watches and warnings for the latest and follow "Storm Tweets" as they come in via our blog: http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.ca/p/weather-data-links.html

Tips: Be prepared and have a safety plan in place. Have your weather radio, cell phone, cameras, candles and flash lights charge and at the ready.

Stay safe and enjoy the weather!

Today's Forecast Show #skstorm Saturday?

Here is the archive of our Severe Weather Forecast Show, originally aired via Facebook at 9:30pm Thursday, May 19, 2016

Severe Weather Forecast Show - May 18, 2016

Here is our second Severe Weather Forecast Show that was broadcast yesterday evening via Facebook. Looking at the coming storm situation this weekend and possibility of big storms in Saskatchewan on Saturday. The next show is scheduled for 9:30pm SST tonight for another update on what the forecast models are saying.

Be sure to like and bookmark us:
https://www.facebook.com/CanadianPrairieStorms/

Severe Weather Forecast Show [Interactive Presentation]

Here is the recorded video of our first live forecast show:

Extreme up-close video of tornado near Wray, CO! (May 7, 2016)

Video courtesy of @reedtimmertvn @accuweather

Filmed on May 7th, 2106 near Wray. Colorado

This looks to be tornado of the year so far but its still very early in the season.



Another perspective of this tornado can be seen via 360° video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCXp9Y5uPn4

Much Needed Rain!

Most of Alberta and Saskatchewan have been under extreme danger for forest and grass fires for the past few weeks and finally this week will bring some much needed rain. Thunder and lightning of the garden variety may accompany this system as it crosses the prairies. Significant precipitation will mostly be confined to the south as the north will remain under extreme danger of forest fires. Higher humanities may help in controlling these fires.

Here is our first map of the storm season: (graphic design format may be updated in the coming days)

Alberta Canada's First Tornado in 2016

Video of the first tornado on the year in Alberta yesterday, EF-0 confirmed by Environment Canada. 
via YouTube - Shawnah Moseley