The first real chance for severe thunderstorms on the northern plains looks to be June 2nd to 3rd however, current GFS (Global Forecast System) model suggests things will stay south of the US border. It shows that central North Dakota 'could' have severe weather including supercells that day with systems moving towards southern Manitoba on the 3rd. Earlier model runs showed storms possible in southern Saskatchewan on June 2nd as well, so things can easily shift. Personally, I have very little confidence our extremely dry pattern will change any time soon. A strong system in North Dakota could possibly feed some much needed moisture for future development later on around the 7th of June. Right now, looking at humidity and dew point levels, any convection is getting quickly sucked up by near drought conditions at the surface. 30% humidity does not equal thunderstorms of any kind in my books. Dry lightning and low precipitation, high based thunder clouds do not excite me. There is a better chance of severe drought and dust storms than anything else this year, maybe a grasshopper infestation?!
