Severe weather outlook for this week

South east Saskatchewan and south western Manitoba could be in for an outbreak of severe weather on Sunday. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will all see active weather across most of the prairies. There will be no more updates here until I get back from the lake. I need to step back for a few days and take a break. Please refer to Environment Canada watches and warnings and keep up with the latest action via the Facebook group and Twitter list. Thanks and stay safe!

Weird face on the current CAPE image!?

Kenaston

Davidson

View from Chamberlain and Craik saskatchewan

Radar. Echo tops and visible

Storm Chasing

On Board and prepared for intercept! Expecting to see a storm after 7pm between Davidson and Saskatoon. This is just a test post to see if the STC Bus Wifi network can handle photos and video. It's the safest way to storm chase!

Today's Risk Map - Long Term Outlook

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms today, especially in western Saskatchewan, however these storms are not expected to be very strong or long lasting. Hail and heavy rain with flash flooding will be the main feature with a very slight risk of tornadoes.

On Sunday this system shifts south east into southern Manitoba and the same type of scenario is expected there. Monday it starts back in Alberta again and gains energy as it crosses the prairies Tuesday and Wednesday.

A very intense low pressure system suddenly appears over central Saskatchewan on Friday August 3rd which is expected to be another tornado outbreak and this time as and inland cyclone. High winds with extreme spinning action over south east Saskatchewan will certainly be a cause for concern. This low will cover most of the province and it is too early to be sure of what will happen but its always good to know these things well in advance. Non the less, it will be one of the most active weeks this year for severe weather. Expect the unexpected as historically some of the most damaging thunderstorms have hit this time of year.

Latest Risk Map

New Storm System Begins In Alberta Friday - Risk Map

North and central areas of Alberta will see storms begin to filter through the Rocky Mountains of BC and onto the Canadian Prairies. These storms will begin as scattered mini cellular storms with hail and heavy rains the main feature. A supercell with tornado potential can not be ruled out later in the day around Red Deer but for now it is expected to be large hail as the main problem. These storms will strengthen overnight moving south east into southern Saskatchewan where a severe weather outbreak is possible Saturday night. Sunday could see yet another increase in storm energy over areas of Winnipeg and west into south eastern Saskatchewan. The whole scenario seems to repeat itself Monday through Wednesday with temperatures reaching above 30C, storm potential will be very high. This situation is being monitored very closely. The possibility of chasing over the next few days is being strongly considered since the season is now peaking. The chance of seeing a tornado dwindles dramatically after the first week of August so this could be the last or second last chance to intercept a supercell, lightning show or tornado. After seeing the video of near baseball size hail near Cardston, Alberta last night, we will have to be extra careful in case of any surprises. Storms can get very very dangerous at this time of year.

Wicked Cardston Hail Storm [Added a new video]

Cardston is in the extreme south of Alberta, this storm has now crossed the international border into Montana. All warnings and watches have ended. This is likely only the beginning of another round of severe weather to cross the Canadian prairies with a strong set up for Saskatchewan on Saturday, peaking yet again on Tuesday! Be prepared for the worst!

2012 YEAR OF TORNADOES IN SASKATCHEWAN (video playlist)

Tornado Tuesday - Part 3 - Frequency Increasing!

What started on June 15th, dubbed by CBC at the time as "Saskatchewan's Day Of Tornadoes" would soon turn out to be only the beginning of what is turning out to be the most active years on record for the province.
Today's Story from CBC
 Today another round of amazing footage came in as the low pressure system crossed central Saskatchewan causing tornadoes to spawn around the city of Regina. According to Global Regina, double the normal number of tornadoes have already been confirmed this year after yet another busy day today where 3 more have already been confirmed to have touched down in 3 seperate areas of today's system. This suggests that each tornadic cell may have produced multiple touchdowns which could increase the overall number. It doesn't really matter all that much the exact number of tornadoes but what does matter is that they are increasing in frequency as summer tears on. Instead of storms happening once a week as they started out in June, it is now up to two or three times a week and damage reports are also increasing. This still leaves more than a month to go in the most dangerous time of storm season in Saskatchewan. Forecast models already are showing yet another major outbreak coming up over the weekend with no relief at all in sight from Friday to at least Wednesday, somewhere on the Canadian Prairies there will be major storms and this time all high energy super cellular storms as compared to the past few days of weak low pressure mini cells.

Risk Map - Tonight and Tomorrow

Severe Weather Risk Map for Tonight and Tuesday

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Saskatchewan with Saskatoon at greatest risk tonight and it will re-fire up again after noon in south east Saskatchewan, including Regina and Yorkton regions.

Tornado Safety - Wadena Video

July 18, 2012
Wadena to Kelvington Tornado Event In Saskatchewan

Craig Hilts of Prairie Fire Photography caught some amazing images of the tornado and resulting curiosity that can sometimes accompany a chase of this kind.

This photo caused a major fire storm of debate on the Facebook group and I thought it was important to document what is going on out there. Children are seen here waiting to see the coming tornado.

In the United States, this type of thing has become very common and the irresponsibility sometimes goes right into the stratosphere of stupidity as seen below:

PLEASE USE COMMON SENSE!

Live streams and experienced storm chasers are out there so you don't have to be. Watch the footage from the safety of your basement during severe weather!

Today's Risk Map

Saskatchewan - Severe Weather Today - Risk Map

Severe weather is expected today in areas from Regina to Melfort and Yorkton regions. Tornadoes may form with some of these storms but are not expected to be very strong. Often though, it is the ones we don't expect that end up doing the most damage so keep an eye on the weather and never underestimate its power!

Tornadoes For Interlakes Manitoba - (Risk Map)

1pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been issued and storms are emerging along the International border. Initiation is expected to occur for severe thunderstorms in the triangle of Yorkton, Regina and Brandon.

Humidex advisories have been issued for much of eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Values are expected to reach 43c in some areas. This factors into the extreme CAPE values, which are now off the chart, beyond maximum measurements in southern Manitoba. The humidex advisory area stops at Regina, where temperatures fall off and severe thunderstorms are added to the local forecast. A slight to moderate risk has been issued by the Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre in south eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Currently storms are emerging at the USA border with Manitoba where SPC there has a slight risk with 2% tornado risk. This risk increases slightly further north, in an area between north of Brandon and Winnipeg, south of the interlakes region.

Latest Update - Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for western Saskatchewan, including Saskatoon. A severe thunderstorm warning for the Biggar, Rosetown area is now active. A large thunderstorm is moving east from there and will collide with a very unstable airmass near Saskatoon towards Yorkton later this afternoon‪. Severe thunderstorm watches are stretching all the way from central Saskatchewan to the foothills of Alberta, tornado watches may be issued soon in eastern Saskatchewan. The clear spot over Quill Lakes will be the trigger for the tornadic cells to emerge with little or no warning .‪ Storm chasers are currently holding their positions near Wynyard in east central Saskatchewan waiting for initiation around 4pm.

Today's Risk Map

The moderate risk area has expanded as expected with the area area around Yorkton holding onto a dangerous threat of several tornadoes today. The most important time of the day will be between 3pm and 9pm with the split occurring around 8pm. Please have a safety plan and be ready!

HEADS UP! Severe Weather EVENT. Strong Tornadoes Forecast for Yorkton Area Tomorrow!

Forecast models have been suggesting that Wednesday will be the day for a possible outbreak of severe weather in southern Saskatchewan and PASPC confirmed this earlier today, issuing a "Moderate Risk" for several tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in south east Saskatchewan, especially around the Yorkton region. After pouring over the latest models and forecast observations, it looks like storms will begin near midnight tonight and come from the south initially, growing in strength as the night turns to morning. A split occurs just after noon Saskatchewan time. This is similar to the June 26th event where we easily caught up to a growing tornadic cell west of Moose Jaw, filming 2 violent tornadoes and witnessing a 3rd rope tornado at extremely close range. The only major difference is that it seems to completely die off at sunset near 9pm without a following squall line. In conclusion, the most dangerous cell should initiate somewhere between Regina and Yorkton around 1pm and split into several tornadic supercells, growing one by one towards well north of Yorkton and moving south east. The cells with the most distinguishable right turning action that do not move north but race east will be the most dangerous. We will continue to monitor and update the situation here as things develop. The next major update will be around 8am and the map will likely be upgraded at that time. Take this time to contact loved ones, secure property and make a safety plan!

Tornado Watch - South East Saskatchewan

A tornado watch has been issued on both sides of the Canadian and USA borders of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and North Dakota. Severe thunderstorms are possible in most southern regions of Saskatchewan and south western Manitoba this evening. Areas around the Estevan region carry a risk of tornadoes.

Raw video: Freak Tornadoes cause chaos in Poland 07.15.12

South Western Saskatchewan - Today's Risk Map

Swift Current to Moose Jaw, Outlook and Humboldt regions have the best chance of severe weather today including tornadoes wrapped in heavy rain. Severe thunderstorm watches have bee issued already for areas of south east BC and south west Alberta. Storms are popping up on radar near Swift Current at this hour and should develop from there today.

Tornado Risk Today In East Central Alberta - Chasers In Pursuit

Storm chasers Gunjan Shadow Hunter, Craig Hilts @prairiestorm71, Justin Hobson @justinhobson85, and Dave Carlson @stormstructure are currently in the tornado watch areas of east central Alberta attempting to intercept gigantic storm cells now in progress! Follow the storm chaser list on twitter for live updates from the field!

Loud Thunder In Regina - Lightning Storm July 11, 2012

Coffee at Atlantis was extra awakening this morning as an intense lightning and thunder storm grew over the city of Regina. Close lightning overhead echoed around the SaskPower building seen across the street facing south. This storm continued to grow into the afternoon eventually soaking the city of Yorkton causing major flooding in the downtown there.

Today's Risk Map

Severe thunderstorms are likely for the City of Regina and most of eastern Saskatchewan. Storms should fire up early today before noon and slowly progress into Manitoba tonight. Main concern will be intense lightning, hail, heavy down pours and flash flooding. Last night, Saskatoon got a wild light show with the local detector peaking at 341 strikes per minute.

Wide Spread Risk Area For Storms (map) / Humidex Advisories

Update: Hail is not likely at all but heavy down pours are as air aloft is above freezing levels at 15k feet according to PSPC.

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for several areas this afternoon, including south east BC, Fort Simpson in the North West Territories, north central Alberta and western Saskatchewan. With the extreme heat and low surface winds, storms are expected to be slow movers, heavy down pours, flash flooding and intense lightning producers. Once the maximum heating is reached today, thing may change into the evening and we will update the situation as it happens. Night time cooling could cause some very large storms to emerge in any of these areas. Keep cool and pay attention to updated watches and warnings.

Also, be aware of the humidex advisory for central Saskatchewan, including Lloydminster, Saskatoon, Yorkton as the humidex will reach over 40C today. North Battleford, Regina, Estevan could all be included in the advisory as well as values are already hitting 37C at noon.

Environment Canada Special Weather Statements
Environment Canada Watches and Warnings

June 26, 2012 Tornado Screen Captures

Playing around with the levels and lightning after grabbing screen captures from Tuesday, June 26th tornado west of Moose Jaw. You can actually see in some of these screen captures that the hail was literally going straight across, right in front of my face! 

***

The blur in the above photo is hail whipping across my nose at 150 km/hr! 

Let me know which version you like and prints may be eventually made available!

3 New Videos!

Since it seems that things often tend to come in threes, here is the yet unseen footage of the 3 days before the tornado. From Cypress Hills, Alberta and our encounter with high winds, fog and antelope, to the supercell of Oyen to core punching Kindersley. Then off to Saskatoon and chasing Tuesday morning from Deifenbaker Lake and the beginning of the tornadic supercell at Hodgeville, Saskatchewan.

Again, excitement is building today as Tornado Tuesday, part 3 is becoming a reality. Forecast models are suggesting another outbreak of severe weather over Saskatchewan for the 3rd Tuesday in a row! So far we are two for two on Tuesdays as this past week Greg Johnson and company caught the tornado near Deifenbaker Lake on his live stream at tornadohunter.ca 

Check out my partner Gunjan Shadow Hunter's YouTube channel as he continues to upload incredible footage from all of these chase days with spectacular timelapse photography set to awe inspiring musical scores!

No Storms Today - Last Night's Rainbow, Sunset and Lightning

Quiet day in Saskatchewan today, no storms in the forecast for today. 

Update! I'm working on a full length video from this chase this afternoon so keep it locked on Canadian Prairie Storms for more..

Lightning north of Lipton, Saskatchewan

 We chased an incredible series of supercells today ending with this incredible strike right in front of us! Many many photos and video to come!

Tomorrow At 3pm - Forecast Model/Mapped Target

Have a look at the EHI for tomorrow at 3pm. Tornadoes should start to touchdown sometime between 3pm and 7pm as this and the CAPE both fizzle on the forecast model. Best chance to see a tornado will be between Saskatoon and Moose Jaw, again very much like last week. Only this time, conditions have increased in energy and potential for what will likely be stronger, longer track tornadoes, starting from the south, earlier in the day. The forecast high for Regina tomorrow is 30C. The magical trigger point is 29C so that with a very strong jet stream and low pressure system and winds aloft also near maximum levels, oh and need I mention the moisture? Smells like the perfect soup to me. :)

Check the most current forecast and warnings, be prepared, stay safe and keep up to date with our storm chasers list on twitter. Its going to be another memorable day, on canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com

@jaredmysko

 

Tornado Tuesday- Repeat or Ramp Up?

After a nearly stationary lightning storm last night, conditions are setting up for a possible repeat of last Tuesday's tornado in the same area. It seems that Old Wives Lake is becoming less of a fairy tail and more like a true tornado tale! Regina's lightning detector recorded one of the highest numbers of strikes in its history with a peak of 312 strikes per minute and nearly 100000 total strikes at last count. Reed Timmer posted last night that tomorrows models are suggesting that both major cities in Saskatchewan will be at risk to be hit by a powerful long track tornado by Tuesday evening. PSPC said today that the area most at risk will be just east of Moose Jaw and south of the Trans Canada highway sometime before dark. Chasers and spotters are now preparing for another busy day. Stay tuned for updates!

@jaredmysko

Lightning Storm In Regina - July 1, 2012

Storm cells are reorganizing to our west and we should have another show soon! Check the ustream channel as I will start the live stream again soon: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/jaredmysko

NEW VIDEO: