Kelowna Fires / Hurricane Hillary / Tropical Storm Trudeau / Supercell Wednesday

Hoping for rain to put out dangerous wildfires in BC, especially Kelowna and it looks Hurricane Hillary has arrived to save the day, or maybe the week. By the time the first wave of rain hits Canada, we are calling it Tropical Storm Trudeau for saving the country. As a bonus, Tropical Storm Trudeau is expected to produce some supercell potential on Wednesday evening as the second wave crosses the land with much needed moisture.

 

The Next Big System

Thursday, August 17th, 2023

Today's Thunderstorm Outlook from ECCC, showing a large risk area from the foothills through Edmonton to Lloydminster, Alberta. 

Up to 100km/hr wind gust and 4cm hail are possible. A tornado risk is low along the foothills from over the mountains in BC, later into the evening and overnight in west central Alberta.

Extreme heat is expected to push east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday. Depending on the timing, the short term forecast showing Regina hitting 97F/35C at 2pm while the high resolution mid-term forecast saying Brandon, Manitoba will get the big time heat wave.

 
Either way, there is a big system coming over the mountains which will affect everyone on the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Expect a lot of wind, heat waves and storms to follow through the weekend until Sunday as it exits Manitoba. Good thing is, the rain should help knock down a few fires however with record ocean temperatures this summer, we should keep our A/C's up a few more weeks. Might stay hot with supercell thunderstorms much later this summer. 

Storm Front Timelapse Videos from August 10th, 2023

 Canon Photo Slideshow with video clips

Motorola G Power Timelapse

Sony FDR X3000 Action Camera Timelapse

Storm Day Thursday, August 10th, 2023

ECCC's Thunderstorm Outlook for Today:Storm drains had to be cleared out this morning after heavy rain and thunder overnight in Regina.

Smoke clears out at 4pm in ReginaForest Fires (FireSmoke.ca) 

Lightning starts at noon to 4pmLightning Density Forecast Map 

Risk of a tornado in southeast SaskatchewanCOD Next Generation Weather Lab (Forecast Models)

Wind gust profiles suggest a late system causing problems in southwest Saskatchewan up to 11pm

Extremely low visibility at midnight

Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

 Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 9th, 2023

Be READY for #skstorm tomorrow!

Technical discussion:

Two different scenarios featured by today's short and mid term forecast models. The hrrr shows more convection with storms over Regina, the NAM Nest is showing little to no convection for the city. Both models agree that the Estevan region will be in the DANGER ZONE from 4pm to at least 8pm. Regina might see more tornadic storms form later in the evening or overnight (7pm to 9pm and 1am). With experience of watching these patterns fold and unfold, our best guess is to put all of southern Saskatchewan on storm watch with southeastern areas ready to be on high alert in cast heat energy continues to over take the extreme humidity. Lack of ground water to the west will stir up winds, extreme humidity in the east may trigger tornadoes with this system.

Enjoy the weather, pray for rain and stay safe!

New Playlist: Old Music New Videos

Check out our new playlist on YouTube, all the new videos with old music will be showing up here: 

23/7/23 Tornado Risk Today / Maximum Heat Monday

A non-zero tornado risk has been added for both Alberta and southern Saskatchewan today. Extra rain showers overnight and this morning plus clearing out of smoke is increasing the possibility of strong thunderstorms, if anything they will be very discrete (small yet powerful) . More likely is the heat wave on Monday, with up to 35C/95F as a high temperature by 5pm. Perfect time to defrost the refrigerator!

 

Update #3 Its Montana Monday/Mid Term Models

 Monday is coming in hot for Montana. That is a storm that will need several cameras on it. #mtwx This composite radar image (NAM Nest) is for 8pm as it enters North Dakota. Big storms coming across the northern plains this week!

Tuesday, July 18th could produce tornadoes in southeast Saskatchewan. We will know much more as mid term models begin to reveal the radar.

UPDATE #2 Next Big Storm System: July 18th and 19th, 2023

 Checking the GFS forecast model, today's 12z update, the supercell composite continues to show an area of southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, Montana and the Dakotas in the mix for supercell action from July 18th to July 19th for Canadian provinces, and continuing further south into the states July 20th.

 

Smoke Enhibiting Thunderstorm Convection/Clearing Up This Evening

Forest fire smoke is expected to clear up overnight. Thunderstorms had a tough time getting started and likely played a part in a huge area getting zero thunder clouds. Extreme southeast Manitoba is the only place getting the rain and thunderstorms so far. 636pm

Comparing Models to Actuals / Major Manitoba Wind Storms TODAY

Here is todays expanded outlook, NAM Nest is showing action in Saskatchewan, hrrr is calling for big time winds in southern Manitoba. Storms may be discrete, fast moving and tightly packed with a huge punch depending on how close you are. A few very tiny spots on the wind gust map are indicating wind gusts up to 73 knots / 135km/hr in the bright yellow to white spots on the blue map in the red circle. It actually looks like it hits Winnipeg and splits on the hrrr but nothing is suggesting that on current radar or the high resolution NAM Nest. Beware of the potential for high winds if driving along the number 1 highway in southern Manitoba. Stop and wait a few minutes for these storms to pass. They will be destructive as hell.

Chance of a tornado in some of these storm cells, low end.

Potential storm north of Regina according to the nest,

Hrrr disputes that and is tossing everything at Winnipeg.

So far radar is mostly clear with watches issued.

 

Sunday's Outlook, Potential For Tornadoes

Tornado risk looks pretty low however the size and shape of these storm cells could make for some spectacular skies for the Yorkton to Brandon regions from 4 to 6pm tomorrow.

 

Long Term Outlook GFS Goes Crazy July 18th,19th Supercell Composite

As it warms up again, the GFS is starting to bring July 18th in with maximum intensity. The next wave of systems is trying to start earlier now, when it hits the peak, we may see storms of the "once in a century" type. This is going to be BIG. #skstorm #ndwx #sdwx 

Here comes the WIND! There goes the BIGGEST storm system of the YEAR 2023

Wind gust danger early this evening as the strongest storm system of the year is beginning to rear its ugly head in southern Manitoba. This system produced a violent, public and damaging tornado event in Alberta in the afternoon and a top secret microburst or tornado north of Regina on Saturday evening. Eccccccccccc says its a high risk in southeastern areas of Manitoba. Echo tops show a discrete supercell that had popped up a little further west than expected. Again, those downstream of tornadic supercells are in grave danger. Take extreme precautions, watch the weather and stay safe! (We will process the secret footage tomorrow and post all the incredible highlights of this season in the coming days, boring weather ahead for at least the next two weeks) 

YouTube footage:

Violent Tornado Hits Homes Near Didsbury, Alberta 

JayJack Storm Trax

Canada Day Convection to Supercell Microburst with Lightning

Saskatchewan Storms and Wildlife Wonders

 

Tornado/Gustnado/Supercell/Shelf Epic Day: June 23rd, 2022 Comprehensive Summary

 June 23rd, 2022 Comprehensive Summary of this Spectacular Epic Tornado Warning Fest, Hail Shaft Frenzy, Gustnado Apocalypse with Mammoth Sized Popcorn Clouds followed by the Orange Peel Mega Shelf Cloud and a Vigorous Lightning Engine Supercell that had no quit!

Saskatchewan Storms and Wildlife Wonders on YouTube:

(titles subject to change)

Sony 4K Full TL 4:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqGMjCp38yE

MotoG Power TL Clip 0:11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE9MA1fbigA

Canon 730hs Super Zoom + 17:45 Action Thriller Full Episode

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX7AOgzBrXw

Lost In The Storm on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89lbr8cjkVA

Prairie Weather Media on YouTube:

Edenwold, SK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upEF1lT7VD4

Twitter photos with locations:

Edenwold, SK timelapse by Joshua Zorn

https://twitter.com/JoshZorn/status/1540498090624487424?s=20&t=pnlqqMmt8ZAHtmb31YQ92w

Regina Beach hail size

https://twitter.com/GregMorganCJME/status/1540312604849102851?s=20&t=pnlqqMmt8ZAHtmb31YQ92w

West of Central Butte

https://twitter.com/edp1990/status/1540364630224248833?s=20&t=pnlqqMmt8ZAHtmb31YQ92w

NE of Gerald, SK

https://twitter.com/MBstormchasers/status/1540152002327580672?s=20&t=pnlqqMmt8ZAHtmb31YQ92w

South of Fairy Hill

https://twitter.com/thefunkygirl/status/1540161818181586944?s=20&t=pnlqqMmt8ZAHtmb31YQ92w

[Timeline of Events] Deadly Severe Weather Outbreak May 17 to 21 Saskatchewan/Michigan/Ontario/Quebec 2022

A timeline of events from the top of the May 2022 full moon cycle, it all started with this foreshadowing sign from the clouds east of Wascana Lake spotted on May 16th 3:36pm.

Hoping to see something pop up over Wascana Lake, filming began..

(for more, read the descriptions on the YouTube videos)   

May 17th

A probable tornado touched down on this farm near Caronport, Tuesday night around 7 p.m. #SKstorm pic.twitter.com/yB52i0rlgV

— CTV Morning Live Regina (@CTVReginaLive) May 18, 2022

To calculate the speed of the wind here all you have to do is know the distance between power poles and the speed of the debris that covers that distance. IF PowerPoleDistance=100m AND Debris speed is 3 seconds THEN it takes 30 seconds to go 1km WHICH = 120km/hr .. That is the speed of the outer bands of wind. The inner core of the tornado is obviously much higher, this looks like an EF3 which would correspond with similar events in Michigan from the same system. Environment Canada gave it a preliminary rating of EF0 because there were no reports of damage (unless SGI was to share information of course). The Western Ontario University Northern Tornado Project report can be viewed here: https://uwo.ca/ntp/blog/2022/landspout_tornado_near_caron_sk.html

As it super cooled off, another brief filming session with Kestrel temperature close monitoring as we saw it drop from 15C as the first sunshine came out after the rain, to 9C in about an hour!

May 18th

On Friday, May 20th, an EF3 tornado ripped through Gaylord, Michigan killing 2 and injuring 40. Here is some of the highest level damage and an historic "wood through steel" photo:

Vehicles impaled by debris here in Gaylord MI @SevereStudios pic.twitter.com/PaW2g6MeBs

— Jordan Hall (@JordanHallWX) May 21, 2022

The next morning started off with what was reported as hurricane force winds near London, Ontario.

Almost hurricane force winds on this line near Drumbo! @weathernetwork #ONStorm pic.twitter.com/BUKPOpL2l3

— Mark Robinson (@StormhunterTWN) May 21, 2022

 This shockingly powerful storm ended up ripping across 1000km of the most populated areas of Ontario and Quebec including Toronto (121km/hr), Peterborough (130km/hr), Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. At least 5 were killed, unknown at this time the damage or total injuries. Historic Derecho for sure. 

You can see the sheet of dirt and the car being pushed in the #ONStorm #ontstorm #ottnews @weathernetwork pic.twitter.com/Py6iJyxKEt

— Adam Safaoui (@adam_safaoui) May 21, 2022

Incredibly fitting, on May 22nd this is how it ended:

It's still chugging along pic.twitter.com/g30FnYgVbx

— Mike (@205mph) May 23, 2022

Waiting for Winter to End... videos of how it went Winter of 21/22 in Regina, Saskatchewan

November 16th, 2021 Blizzard Walk Downtown Regina #Blizzard #WildWeather #Saskatchewan

Major Watermain Break Flooding The City! #yqrTraffic #Regina #Saskatchewan

Blizzard Walk January 31, 2022 #skstorm #Regina #Saskatchewan #yqr

Walking in the snow shower, documenting piles of snow in Regina #4K #SpringMelt2022 #Saskatchewan

BONUS: Spring Chickadee Slow Motion Footage

Little Bird In Super Duper Slow Motion

Videos from YouTube of the August 31st Damaging Hailfest and Weak Tornadoes

EDIT: Many videos have been taken down by YouTube, text remains but some of these are old broken links. 

I have gone through YouTube and made a list of all the videos with significant footage of the historic August 31, 2021 Storm the hit the city of Regina. This was the closest we have come yet to capturing the return of "Regina Cyclone 2.0" Please excuse the video thumbnails, for they are hilarious but quite fake. The footage inside the videos is real, I have reviewed it all. Each of these video shows a different angle of this epic storm.

Apocalypse of Stones in Canada! 🚨 Hailstorm struck Regina, Saskatchewan

https://youtu.be/gGz5tpiJKS4

832,505 views

This video shows a funnel with dust coming up of the ground which usually is enough to confirm an EF0 tornado. Tornado starts at 1:12 in the video. Travel With Costy's YouTube Channel:

SCARY THUNDERSTORM WIT HAIL STORM IN Regina, Saskatchewan. CANADA

https://youtu.be/ga9MAwrGha8
431 views

Another weak funnel can be seen crossing over downtown from the CBC sky camera. Tornado / funnel starts at 0:25 in the video. Recommend slowing down the frames in the options on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/yEcYOILbt-s

Real close to a tornado, mostly funnel. Amazing view from right under the cloud I was filming much further back on the lake. From Brandon Mazenc's YouTube channel:

https://youtu.be/-C86CY1e-ls

Looks like another weak funnel / tornado at 4:16 on Shear WX Severe Weather Chasers YouTube channel:

https://youtu.be/SphqakNn8rI

Possibly the closest footage by chasers of rotation trying to turn into a tornado. Also, check out the tight funnel at 7:01 nearly a tornado right in front of them. Credit Manitoba Storm Chasers YouTube Channel:

https://youtu.be/byCpard3v1A

Craig Boehm had another close view:

https://youtu.be/GSk6dv-LRlA

I can't possibly post every video on YouTube here so here is a list of videos I made which eventually be part of the movie in the making Regina Cyclone 2.0

Quick Wascana Marsh View: 4K Hyperlapse Slowed to Quarter Speed (Sony)

Full Timelapse of August 31, 2021 Spinning Hail Storm (Sony)

Spinning Vortices / Rapid Updrafts / Tornado Warned Supercell (Canon)

Full Storm Show August 31, 2021 FHD60  (Canon)

Timelapse Replay: Sky Cam View August 31st Spinning Hail Storm (Logitech)

Surveying the Damage from August 31" Spinning" Hail Storm (Sony/Canon)

NOTE: I kinda rushed this post due to prep for thunderstorms right after work tomorrow! Non-zero tornado risk again after 3pm.

Quick Wascana Marsh View: 4K Hyperlapse Slowed to Quarter Speed #skstorm...

Northwest Flow Brings a Microburst - Heatwave Incoming/Storms To Follow July 2nd

June 25th, 2021 

Watch towards the end as incoming rain send dusts into the air over downtown Regina. I was filming on the south shore of Wascana in front of the Legislature, the downtown core is the bank of lights on the right side of the horizon. A kayaker happened to have parked right there and we had a nice chat as he docked for the night. Rain was quite steady and moderate to light with no flooding seen on the way home afterwards. 

Looking ahead to July, a heat wave from California to British Columbia will eventually make its way over the mountains and onto the prairies. We are looking at July 2nd and 3rd as the next chance to see big time thunderstorms on the Canadian Prairies. 

Remember to check our Facebook Page for updates, the daily Thunderstorm Outlooks are now being updated and be sure to check the side bars (desktop version) for the auto updated images and Storm Chaser Tweets.

Subscribe to Saskatchewan Storms and Wildlife Wonders on YouTube 

Early morning Storm Discussion : Tornadoes Today!

Good morning!

It is unusually dark out in Regina this morning, expecting things to clear up fast near noon with big storms to the west. Here is some early morning discussion before official things get issued:

Looking at the difference between the Hrrr and NAM Nest forecast models, the Hrrr seems to be confirming current radar and if it continues we will see much stronger storms to our west, Moose Jaw is going to be flooded (4 inches/10cm) Regina (1 inch/3cm).

Winds over 150km/hr at the Montana border will be pushing things towards us, new model runs keep suggesting tornadoes will be possible around Old Wives Lake, likely to the south and east of there after 5pm... expecting tornado watches any second..

 

2021 Storms Video Playlist / Hurricane Force Blizzard Hits Regina - January 13-14, 2021

 Here is a playlist of videos from our YouTube channel from the Hurricane Force Blizzard that hit Regina, Saskatchewan on January 13 with aftermath video from the 14th, 2021.

"Heavy rain, freezing rain and well above normal temperatures began an historic day for the city of Regina, Saskatchewan. Wind speeds over 140km/hr were recorded just south of the city. Sustained winds over 94km/hr lasted about 3 hours 11pm to 2am. Widespread damage is being reported and cleanup is now underway. I went out for a couple walks during the storm and caught a few snow-nadoes and a lot of wild and scary winds!"

Storm Impact - Lightning/Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding [BONUS UFO FOOTAGE]

Timelapse of Developing Storm Cells - July 20, 2020

Expecting some non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon, I set up this timelapse at the edge of the city of Regina and then tracked back towards Wascana Creek. This is before and during the previously posted live stream at a small shelter along Wascana Creek: (6100 Brunskill Place in north west Regina). Ended up with only a few rain drops along my locations but radar clips saved on my Twitter page (@jaredmysko) show that it jumped the city again, and turned purple (60dbz) or near maximum strength just on the other side of the city.

Was fun, might do another one soon! Risk of thunderstorms until 8pm in Regina. Tomorrow the risk is in northern Alberta and its yellow, not grey like today. The really big storms will begin to cross the prairies with the increased heat this week, its gonna stay very active!