Here is the latest GFS Supercell Composite and it continues to show August 18-19 as the focus for the next supercell situation in Saskatchewan with the 17th and 20 added this run. It has consistently been showing this activity for several days now.
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Thursday, August 14, 2025
PASPC Thunderstorm Risk - August 14th, 2025 High Risk Eastern Manitoba
Wind gusts up to 120km/hr east of Winnipeg are possible later this afternoon and evening with risk of a tornado and large hail.
Forecast models are struggling to keep up for some reason, best to watch radar because a lot of the data is missing elements. Here is a snip of what the latest composite radar from the hrrr shows at 8pm SST or 9pm Manitoba Time.
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