Saturday, July 09, 2016

Overnight and Saturday Morning Risk Map

Here is an updated risk map for overnight and into Saturday morning. Next update at 7am. Strong thunderstorms overnight will increase in scale and intensity by morning. Large hail, strong winds and risk of a tornado for south east Saskatchewan and south west Manitoba. Saturday evening, storms will become long track supercells with significant tornadoes and up to baseball size hail.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Moderate to High Risk Saturday and Sunday #MBSTORM #SKSTORM

Saturday and Sunday looks like it will be a moderate to high risk for severe weather in south east Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Baseball size hail with long lived supercells, significant tornadoes, dangerous lightning and damaging winds. Begin your tornado precautions NOW if in these areas, Yorkton south through Regina into Montana, east to the Red River Valley and all of south west Manitoba. Make your plans now and stay safe, monitor weather alerts closely and with full attention, charge weather radios, cell phones, and stock candles and food.
A detailed map will be outlined later tonight as models come in line with the forecast.
Here is the Saturday 6pm NAM Supercell Composite:

Sunday's GFS shows the Supercell Composite Index with soundings at 69.1 (translating to a PDS Tornado, "Particularly Dangerous Situation) just south of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba/North Dakota border intersection:

Tornado #5 of 2016 Confirmed

Video of Saskatchewan's 5th confirmed tornado of 2016 near Estevan yesterday July 7.