Saturday, June 27, 2015

Tornado Warning In Manitoba [Moderate Risk Outlook Map]

Areas in south eastern Manitoba are in the moderate risk zone for severe weather this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado warning has just been issued:

2:23 PM CDT Saturday 27 June 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:
  • R.M. of Dufferin including Carman Roseisle and Homewood
Updated or ended by 3:15 p.m. CDT.

At 2:23 p.m. CDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Doppler radar indicates a potential tornado near Roseisle moving 40km/h southeast.



Friday, June 26, 2015

Severe Thunderstorms With Flash Flooding [Today's Outlook Map]

There are some big storms popping up all over eastern and central Saskatchewan including Manitoba this afternoon. With extreme heat to the west, and high CAPE values, these slow moving, high topped storms will produce a lot of local rain which could result in flash flooding. Storms are expected to persist late into the evening where a chance of tornadoes exists around sundown.


Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Weak Tornadic Storms Today, Bigger Ones Friday...

Tornado Warnings have been issued in southern Manitoba this afternoon with confirmation of at least one touchdown.




The storms today are are very slow moving, mostly rain event type with some possible spin ups of weak tornadoes. There will be no map today, keeping with the consistent model forecasts of scattered non-severe thunderstorms. If any damage occurs from these cells, it will be a possible tipped lawn chair and a lot of rain. Flash flooding should be the main concern today.

Friday on the other hand, looks to be quite active for stronger type supercell thunderstorms that can cause widespread damage. Here is a look at the difference between the NAM forecast model for 9pm this evening and 9pm Friday evening. This is the forecast "supercell composite":

Wednesday 9pm Supercell Composite

Friday 9pm Supercell Composite